Department Seminar: Justin Mankin

Title: From mechanisms to decisions: Constraining uncertainty in the human impacts of climate change

Abstract: How will climate change affect people and the things they value? Earth System Model projections of future climate change are notoriously uncertain at the regional scales where impacts are felt and where responses are developed. Drawing on examples from violent conflict, economic growth, and water resources, my talk highlights my research to inform society’s management of climate risks. I discuss my efforts to (1) meaningfully connect geophysical changes with human consequences, (2) quantify, attribute, and constrain uncertainty, and (3) inform model design and analysis choices to ensure scientific answers about future climate impacts are sound, transparent, reproducible, useful, and just. Together, my developing research program and its future ambitions demonstrate the importance of science that spans both fundamental and applied questions of climate impacts to best prepare society for a warmer world.