Department Seminar: Jhordanne Jones

Title: Is subseasonal-to-seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone predictability changing with a warmer climate?

Abstract: Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) tropical cyclone prediction at lead times between 2 weeks to 2 months is essential for preventing disasters, safeguarding livelihoods, and disseminating early warnings for imminent storm activity before and during the hurricane season. Recent projections of global tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicate a likely global increase in the frequency and variability of the most intense TCs under global warming. Concurrently, we expect changes to the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a key source of sub-seasonal predictability. Under global warming, MJO-associated precipitation and zonal wind amplitudes are projected to increase with an eastward shift of MJO-related precipitation. In this talk, I’ll use the ERA5 reanalysis data to characterize and examine observed trends in S2S Atlantic TC predictability and their association with MJO variability. Additionally, given the current uncertainty in the warming pattern simulated by global climate models, I will discuss the implications of the pattern effect for the MJO-Atlantic TC relationship. The key science questions I will address in my talk are:

• How are Atlantic TC variability and MJO variability changing?
• Which aspects of the changing MJO variability matter for S2S Atlantic TC
  predictability?
• And what are the implications of the pattern effect for these observed trends?