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Near Zero
Steven J. Davis
University of California, Irvine  |  Dept. of Earth System Science
Satisfying global demand for energy, food, and goods without emitting CO2 to the atmosphere is a central challenge of the 21st century.  My research is aimed at understanding the scale of that challenge and finding ways to meet it.
Non-CO2 emissions embodied in traded meat
Environmental Research Letters | November 13, 2014

More than 30 Mt CO2-equivalent CH4 and N2O emissions are embodied in meat traded internationally in 2010, and the total is increasing at roughly 4% per year. This reflects a trend of increasing livestock production in countries with lower input costs, less efficient practices, and more permissive environmental regulations, which act to decrease global food costs and incentivize both global demand and international trade.

Caro et al., 2014
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Selected Press: environmentalresearchweb
A crack in the gas bridge
Nature | October 15, 2014

A suite of global models show that, without new climate policies, abundant natural gas will not act to reduce GHG emissions or mitigate climate change. Consistent with our earlier findings for the US, abundant (and therefore cheap) gas may delay deployment of low-carbon energy sources and increase overall energy use.

Davis and Shearer, 2014
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Selected Press: SciAm, The Guardian, CSMonitor
Bridge or detour?
Natural gas and US CO2 emissions

Environmental Research Letters | September 24, 2014

Leaking methane isn't the only reason natural gas may not reduce GHG emissions: gas also competes against low-carbon renewable energy sources. Across a range of gas supplies, our modeling shows that abundant gas replaces both coal and renewables and in the end has little effect on future US GHG emissions even if there is no leakage. Policy may reduce emissions; cheap gas on its own won't.

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Shearer et al., 2014
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Selected Press: Science, WaPo, ClimateProgress
Sharing a quota of cumulative emissions
Nature Climate Change | September 21, 2014

Because climate warming is proportional to cumulative GHG emissions, we know how long a 'runway' we have before we reach any given level of warming. The question is how to divvy up that runway among countries given that industrialized countries don't want to stop emitting and developing countries want to start emitting more. Here, we describe a quantitative method for doing the sharing.

Raupach et al., 2014
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Selected Press: NatGeo
Commitment accounting of CO2 emissions
Environmental Research Letters | August 26, 2014

As of 2012, power plants existing worldwide represent roughly 300 billion tons of future CO2 emissions, assuming individual plants operate for a lifetime of 40 years. Moreover, committed emissions from the power sector have been growing globally at a rate of about 4% per year. This paper presents a formal method of commitment accounting that can inform public policy by quantifying future emissions implied by current investments.

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Davis and Socolow, 2014
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Selected Press: Science, Dot Earth, Newsweek, Guardian