What are long term impacts of fires on vegetation recovery processes and trajectories?

Modeling of post-fire vegetation succession (UCI)

One of the largest challenges in predicting ecological change is the simulation of non- equilibrium vegetation dynamics, including disturbance regimes and extreme events (Gardner et al., 1996). We will investigate how MAPSS-CENTURY 1 (MC1; Daly et al. 2000, Bachelet et al. 2001), a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model, captures the rate and direction of post-fire vegetation recovery. MC1 (http://www.fsl.orst.edu/dgvm) is a dynamic global vegetation model that couples MAPSS (Neilson 1995), CENTURY (Parton and others 1987), and MCFIRE (Lenihan 1998) to simulate vegetation succession through time at landscape to global scales (Bachelet et al. 2001). The 1981-2000 20 year average climate (see 3.4 below), and the fire return interval for each vegetation type based on the FRAP fire history, will be used to drive the model to equilibrium state. The spatial distribution of equilibrium vegetation will be compared with that from the CA GAP analysis (CA GAP 2002). Subsequent, transient runs will be based on gridded meteorological records, and will compare the patterns of predicted fire occurrence and severity with the FRAP record of fire occurrence and Landsat-derived severity. Additionally, we will compare the modeled recovery from fire, including plant function type, LAI, and woody and herbaceous biomass, with the in-situ and remote sensing observations of recovery.