Jin-Yi Yu: Okay.
Jin-Yi Yu: Good morning, everybody. I want to wait for maybe one more minute.
Jin-Yi Yu: Because I'm going to describe how the final is going to be contacted
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, I guess we have
Jin-Yi Yu: Most of the
Jin-Yi Yu: Most of us are here already. Yeah, so I'm, let me first talk about the final exam.
Jin-Yi Yu: So I'm going to make it a open book exam on a final exam and you will be given one and half hour to do your open book final on canvas, and I'm going to
Jin-Yi Yu: So I'm, I'm thinking the to the final
Jin-Yi Yu: Beginning from next Monday to next.
Jin-Yi Yu: Tuesday. So because some of us are not in the same room so you can take exam either next Tuesday or next Monday.
Jin-Yi Yu: Or maybe I can extend it on next Wednesday. And then you have one and half hour to to your final exam in the final exam. There will be two part first place, multiple choice questions and they may be around something
Jin-Yi Yu: For God maybe somewhere around 40 something multiple choice question and then that one is be there will be conducted on the canvas and the second pies.
Jin-Yi Yu: That's the difficult part on how to
Jin-Yi Yu: Do that.
Jin-Yi Yu: Now I have a three simple question. Simple. Simple question problem, then you need to do it and you know and scream on PDF and send it to me.
Jin-Yi Yu: Yeah, I don't know how to apply it technically. Yeah. But basically, you will be in is open book exam and every are the final exam only covered a chapter after the meeting your issue picking from the
Jin-Yi Yu: What was the chapter after meeting.
Jin-Yi Yu: The meeting ended in mathematical general circulation. Right. So I think it should be came from ocean circulation chapter and and the chapter after chapter. Okay, so I'll send you a more accurate more detailed discussion every
Jin-Yi Yu: Thursday. But in principle is open book and yeah and then you are to it on kamus process, email me your answer for the three simple question i PDF. Any other questions, anyone
Jennifer Campos Ayala: Now, okay.
Jin-Yi Yu: Yes, please.
Jennifer Campos Ayala: Would be like one attempt
Jennifer Campos Ayala: For the multiple choice portion. Correct.
Jin-Yi Yu: No, you can do multiple attempts right is is another case or to meet him.
Jennifer Campos Ayala: No, I don't. I don't believe so.
Jennifer Campos Ayala: Not for the money for the it was we could go in and we can try it. And then we can believe in like save our answers and come back, but I wasn't sure if that was going to be the case for the final
Jin-Yi Yu: Could you say that again.
Jennifer Campos Ayala: So I wasn't sure if if for the multiple choice portion of the final exam if we would be able to save answers and come back, or if it has to be completed all in the same time that we
Jin-Yi Yu: All as in is only one and half all
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, yeah.
Jin-Yi Yu: So you have so is open book so you don't need to memorize things but
Jin-Yi Yu: It is you need to know where to find your answer right it is from the crash now. So I think that's the reasonable minimum required as a requirement. Right. You know, it is what
Jin-Yi Yu: It is you're not little financial yeah
Jennifer Campos Ayala: For
Jennifer Campos Ayala: Sure.
Jin-Yi Yu: Thank you, anyone else.
Jin-Yi Yu: Yeah, I'm going to find out how to do a simple answer part of a question. Yeah. So, but I should be included the time you spend on that simple question problems you'll be included as part of the one and half hour.
Jin-Yi Yu: Time you are allowed to the final okay if there's no other question, then I'm going to move to the next year and then I will tell you more monsters. The final okay let me share the screen.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay. So, last night I was trying to describe all these major climate variation phenomena in atmosphere in ocean. And then I ended
Jin-Yi Yu: I stopped at the El Nino Southern Association. So alright, describe to you what that terminology means because in Coto de then I end the here I telling you that the for El Nino phenomena. It basically
Jin-Yi Yu: Typically if grow and then reach the peak time in winter. So Aaron in a pecan they arrive in springtime and grow during the summer and
Jin-Yi Yu: Fall it reached the peak intensity in the wintertime, and then to tie up next. The spring or the second year.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right, so it is the typical evolution pattern of El Nino tell us two things. First, I mean if we want to develop a theory to explain why we have a Nino, then any successful so theory have to be able to explain those things. First, why it grow.
Jin-Yi Yu: Grow mean intended to serve a temperature variation in the Pacific region, why keep on getting pika, pika, pika and nacho nacho why grow. And then if whatever that fish Copper Canyon mckinney's in is that make a new grow. Why, after this winter time quite you start to grow.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right. So this is a tool issue that any info theory have to be able to answer in order to be in order to declare success successful in the
Jin-Yi Yu: In the theory and then that's the one year. The in the 1980s and 70 people try to answer, mostly the second question why El Nino Nina stop the growth
Jin-Yi Yu: And the answer to the first question, y el nino grow, grow so quickly has been already expressed by check copia kindness in his pioneer paper on night in 19 published in 1969 and basically what he was saying is that
Jin-Yi Yu: So the is the reason for me to grow. And this was proposed by pianist.
Jin-Yi Yu: In 1969 or
Jin-Yi Yu: Anything.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay 1969 so basically this growing MK mckinney's and these days call we are coronas
Jin-Yi Yu: Feedback.
Jin-Yi Yu: Mechanism.
Jin-Yi Yu: So next chapter, we are going to describe what is feedback feedback means that you have something a and b, they influence each other, pursue this mutual and two way interaction forever small perturbation a awesome operation be or Cuban Korean pika, pika
Jin-Yi Yu: Let me see what happened to the
Jin-Yi Yu: It to anyone you hear noise.
Melisa Perut: Now,
Jin-Yi Yu: Kim, I'm here. Okay, so, and then these two in action is going to cost the initial
Jin-Yi Yu: Initial participation in component A MP to corrupt pika, pika happen each other to call us call positive feedback which is quite up in the next chapter.
Jin-Yi Yu: And the economic feedback is a positive feedback between our thermosphere an ocean. So this interaction process.
Jin-Yi Yu: Help to grow any small perturbation in atmosphere or small potatoes mentioning ocean to get in pika, pika as Co equal we call a pianist feedback.
Jin-Yi Yu: And appear can be feedback to start a growth mechanism is responsible for amplifying the sea surface temperature SST means sea surface temperature and normally means deviation from the normal condition during post the warm and cold phase.
Jin-Yi Yu: One phase.
Jin-Yi Yu: One phase answer is called El Nino coalface so is called Amina. So here basically spear kind of feedback, tell us that positive feedback from the interaction between the atmosphere, an ocean provide a mechanism.
Jin-Yi Yu: For she said temperature normally to grow in the tropical Pacific during an El Nino. So for example you originally you this is compare it. And then when whatever reason on water, you can move to somewhere in the tropical Central Pacific say this region.
Jin-Yi Yu: Initially the ocean temperature only warm up more than normal by 0.1 decreasing, for example.
Jin-Yi Yu: But is all mean in Greece location where it used to be. Very cool. So we move this warm water to this location and produce the appointment 73 warming
Jin-Yi Yu: And this is going to affect the atmosphere circulation at the master occasion, use the orchestration us to rise.
Jin-Yi Yu: Over Australia and sinking of outside South America. But now, that's because we are warm water in Australia, Indonesia, which is not we more a warm water to the Central Pacific. So we're going to force the warming right emotional come here is fun.
Jin-Yi Yu: More fun Australia to this Central Pacific region. And then this is called sync over the Australia nature so rise condo make the
Jin-Yi Yu: Surface when going this way from west, east, they're going to push this only initial warming to go even further. For the East and so this process really impassioned
Jin-Yi Yu: This initial real point one degrees warming may become 0.2 degrees C, or in 3D Quincy Monica, or even more warmer then is this even warmer ocean temperature is going to be able to collect these workers recursion in the atmosphere in my sphere even more. And then this
Jin-Yi Yu: At the most basic question is supposed to go up and down eventually become political impact here come
Jin-Yi Yu: Up here and given this when to come from Australia west to South America is even stronger was even stronger when this
Jin-Yi Yu: ocean temperatures clinical real point five, when the query and continues going up when he can even warmer is going to collect this at the most radical circulation even more and more and more. So
Jin-Yi Yu: The ocean warming and the correction collapse of orcas occur and help each other to get even more corrupt.
Jin-Yi Yu: Or maybe even more stronger and this is what we describe as a yak honest feedback process. I've met a group
Jin-Yi Yu: So this is the Syria. This process has been such as the economic igniting 66 and 1969 paper right so
Jin-Yi Yu: As I say they are to issue in, you need to explain about a arena. One is y equals yes. Why is that the club. So this one Quakers already explained 1969
Jin-Yi Yu: Paper. Now the question is, if we have a Tomas tropical at her must be in charge of ocean can help each other to grow. So if we start this whole process then
Jin-Yi Yu: Somewhere in the springtime. The ocean temperature become a warmer than normal in this region. If we measure the ocean temperature in this region and take this
Jin-Yi Yu: Image inside the square box region and practice value, as I say, these became the warmer than normal, and then reach the peak in the winter time.
Jin-Yi Yu: So now the pianist feedback process tell you why it keep on calling and Korean Korean if that's the case issue continue to grow and grow and
Jin-Yi Yu: We're going to have a super early and I got this intense the super, super large right the oceans become all my warm Oh. But now the question is, why is that because somewhere in the springtime.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right. Why the ocean temperature stop to continue going up. Why you always some value in the winter time and start time
Jin-Yi Yu: And change from El Nino and it become coalface become now Nina right that's what scientists try to find out here in 19 6080 and theory 1990
Jin-Yi Yu: In front of every during the 1980s and 1990s scientists find out a way that we can stop this PR positive feedback.
Jin-Yi Yu: So we need to have something provide a negative feedback to stop a growing on you know and change the face of a an email.
Jin-Yi Yu: To attend any phenomena. So any successful install theory have to explain how this El Nino Nina please change each other.
Jin-Yi Yu: So this theory need to provide a negative feedback to reverse the face or El Nino ends of from a community Nina. And yeah, that's basically so they have been separate steering being proposed for example.
Jin-Yi Yu: Most famous one is called the day oscillator as well. I'm going to use it to explain to you today.
Jin-Yi Yu: And that's called the day after day. So your job is to remember what is the name of this so theory because it's show very often in the scientific literature and paper.
Jin-Yi Yu: And this one. And the third one is called recharge Elsa hater chattering the charge as a that and this proposal 1970 8090. These two are the most famous
Jin-Yi Yu: theory to explain why El Nino nanny now start to grow and change from El Nino to La Nina and to me, so I'm going to explain that the here.
Jin-Yi Yu: So basically this the layout said telling you that right now we have our chemistry, a tropical atmosphere focus occasion a co op in the western Pacific
Jin-Yi Yu: And then more from west to east in the tropopause and coming down outside South American coast and produce a win. Going back from east to west. This is normal condition.
Jin-Yi Yu: In normal condition, who is going from West or East, South America.
Jin-Yi Yu: To Australia.
Jin-Yi Yu: It is normal condition we can call this way.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, that's the stage, we need to learn for now before we can explain this to say the theory right so now the background. When the normal condition when calling from east to west. Now that today, I'll say to try to tell you how alien
Jin-Yi Yu: Started in couple minute and change the law. Nina became funny. That's why you see here the when we are going to expand this year, it became parties going going in reverse direction from west to east. OK, so now I mean hope to hear
Jin-Yi Yu: This is the
Jin-Yi Yu: acorn when calling from west, east, west, because of workers occasion. Now here this theory called derail us data as feta means what
Jin-Yi Yu: It goes from positive, negative, positive, negative, positive Mecca. This is called oscillator. Positive means El Nino connected means La Nina.
Jin-Yi Yu: Now why we have the onboarding delay. So this year, it'll tell you the reason our nature produce El Nino follow up or La Nina. Nina. Nina. Nina this association this our second is produced by a delay response.
Jin-Yi Yu: Of ocean.
Jin-Yi Yu: To the occur must fear.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, ocean response to a common spherical when forcing is always delay to that we're enforcing and then because of this today will produce El Nino and then now Nina. Nina. Nina. Okay, so that's the key spirit of this theory. The key words today what process make this
Jin-Yi Yu: To happen okay in, we need to have this delay ocean response.
Jin-Yi Yu: To the atmosphere in order to produce these Iranian on an inner exploration
Jin-Yi Yu: And what make ocean could do is respond with a delay. Right. And we're going to explain that. And now we're going to find out how much it is today is going to happen in the ocean depends on how why
Jin-Yi Yu: The ocean is so if ocean from west side. East side is this big very big like Pacific Ocean, then it's big enough to produce a peak the day
Jin-Yi Yu: When you have big the day that you put these alien on. I mean, I only know me and when ocean becomes smaller. For example, it become apparent the ocean this it becomes smaller. This Atlantic
Jin-Yi Yu: Then the ocean is become that's why soda that delay in the ocean is going to be read deals. So Atlantic cannot
Jin-Yi Yu: Produce El Nino nanny nap. Very easy, but there's some chance to do that.
Jin-Yi Yu: But if we go to Indian Ocean as events narrow from western side of Africa Eastern side Australia in the ocean Indian Ocean so small, so small that there's no not
Jin-Yi Yu: Nice not wide enough to produce these a day without ocean today respond or atmosphere in this alien phenomena aspiration cannot happen. So we are going to learn from this theory on the Pacific Ocean is why
Jin-Yi Yu: Enough.
Jin-Yi Yu: To
Jin-Yi Yu: Put deals in El Nino ahead, and that's why we only observe El Nino phenomena in the Pacific Ocean, not in the Atlantic or Indian Ocean. That's the key conclusion, we are going to learn from
Jin-Yi Yu: This part ok now let's see. What is it today. So now we have
Jin-Yi Yu: North America, South Australia. Yeah. And then we have very strong pick one, we're going from east to west.
Jin-Yi Yu: And push all the warm water to pile up in the Australia region or a Walmart is here now. Now, for some reason, during the springtime.
Jin-Yi Yu: Our Winstanley has its history disturbance, try to push from west to east. So this easterly when originally speak.
Jin-Yi Yu: After we aired in a small perturbation that golden era where this one crash this one we we kind of see the weaker, weaker.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right, this very strong easterly become weaker, right, because we can then this or more of like a push by the strong
Jin-Yi Yu: Easily in the western Pacific in the move back powder. The east central eastern Pacific. OK, so now let's say that's why everything to turn on this El Nino to grow the PR kind of feedback. We need to have Western Union.
Jin-Yi Yu: And no money.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, so that's one way that scientists to monitor whether or not we are going to have a only know in the coming few months in the next few months. We want to see whether or not somewhere in the Pacific Ocean. We see a sign or very strong
Jin-Yi Yu: When going from west to east, if that happened for supper week or even one month, then we will make a warming say maybe earliest going to have happen okay why this one coin from west to east can cause the Yanina. So basic idea is that this to the sea level.
Jin-Yi Yu: And western Pacific here of South America is here in this summer client is very shallow near South America coast his name.
Jin-Yi Yu: Is Ireland.
Jin-Yi Yu: Australia mind that comes in.
Jin-Yi Yu: So now that's why we saw this one here, South Americans here. And then, so some clients very shallow, hear me clearly saw some also sells a man costs. Now, when we
Jin-Yi Yu: Produce a win this way. So we kind of push these puddle of water to move to the east there when when we produce these in order to in and right underneath this one in order to create room for Bridgewater, the more here in some Akai here has to go down.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right, instead of the ricotta. The summer can now code tongue. So you have more room to that Otter move into this area at the same time after you move the water
Jin-Yi Yu: After you more. So you more nearly Moodle water here make you add water, your water here.
Jin-Yi Yu: At the same time you move water from this location to this location so Walmart in each location can last right so i mean summer kind need to go up.
Jin-Yi Yu: You need to that koala because all the water and then is this green nine is cold, so you need to make this summer crackle up right so you can put the quarter year
Jin-Yi Yu: So everywhere here our quarter, quarter colon colon colon one. Okay, so that's what is showing here. So after you produce a
Jin-Yi Yu: West Wing then immediately to the right of this Wednesday when summer client has to go deeper to keep more on water is for
Jin-Yi Yu: To the west of his when his summer car has caught up to bring cold water here. Okay, so now that's why we have these summer Chronicle page.
Jin-Yi Yu: So what does it mean that means that if you had when disturbance when going from west to east on a surface, then you're going to put you're going to produce a
Jin-Yi Yu: Participation that go up here. Go down here, right, then it becomes cover look away. So on the right hand side this way is called
Jin-Yi Yu: kelvim way.
Jin-Yi Yu: On the right hand side is summer critical app is called raspy, we are racing right I'm here.
Jin-Yi Yu: So you this, when in the atmosphere. Overall, she is going to create two ways. One is Calvin way and to the right and raspy way to the left and Kevin way we know that it's going to pop up a
Jin-Yi Yu: To the east. So that's why he moved from here and this is for example in January and then when you come to February this cabin way.
Jin-Yi Yu: Excited by the wing already moved from
Jin-Yi Yu: This location, very quickly to the South American coast and this or mother, very quickly moved to South American coast. Yeah. So you're going to bring on water very quickly.
Jin-Yi Yu: One month later to South American coast and then that warm water is going to show up as a sea surface temperature. That's why we can to have El Nino right in this area is very small, maybe only all my by one degree. See here. Okay. And this after this El Nino
Jin-Yi Yu: This cabin. We go from
Jin-Yi Yu: Central Pacific mortal sounds. I'm an Eastern Pacific and refract as a warm water. I'm a surface. This one, what our server is going to
Jin-Yi Yu: Collapse reverse this orchestra period. So make a go up as I South America and more to ease in sync outside Australia and produce even stronger West, they will. That's why I show here you can see
Jin-Yi Yu: This after we have this warm water showing up here, this will get bigger.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right when you have even bigger when you're going to push even more on water. So water even warmer compared to this one. So maybe in March, the ocean temperature
Jin-Yi Yu: Or arena become 0.5 the greasy right and then the story coin and that's where the PR kind of feedback is going to continue going, man up and make a stronger. Okay, that's where the the
Jin-Yi Yu: The positive feedback is going on. That's where we make a Nino grow pika, pika, pika okay but you say you already know that, right, they're not going to go peek and then where is that today.
Jin-Yi Yu: Remember when this when disturb our ocean summer kind it produced. Not only is Kevin we carry warm water move east. Will you also create a cold water raspy way right and raspy will always go from east to west right we already learned that from the atmosphere situation.
Jin-Yi Yu: Even though I didn't describe in detail, but we know raspberry always propagate to power the West. So you see that wire cabin. We bring warm water.
Jin-Yi Yu: From Central Pacific to South American coast to study El Nino like
Jin-Yi Yu: The Ross and Kerry Colada this quarter. Continue come to Australia mean you say when is koala come to Australia. Why, how come you didn't make
Jin-Yi Yu: Australia ocean temperature co right we say this cabin, we're pretty warm water to South American coast. Make a no show up on the service. How come he's
Jin-Yi Yu: Co raspy we bring co author to Australia, why we didn't see down in Australia and the UK, Australia coast. The reason is because as you can see the summer crime is tilting from west to east
Jin-Yi Yu: Right. So, and then the CO Otter can only brought up front, and then it's very nice to surface. If we saw this surface mixing
Jin-Yi Yu: And service missing is always very sharp very sharp Asia, but because in the eastern Pacific. The summer cry is very close to surface. So the even this shadow mixing mixing process can can make sea surface temperature
Jin-Yi Yu: Be affected by whatever this summer client warm water cooler. But in the western Pacific Australia so McRae is soapy
Jin-Yi Yu: 200 meters 200 meters. So even though you have Colada arrived here in Australia narco Otter cannot refer our service.
Jin-Yi Yu: But that's not an important part of story I want to tell you, you can forget about what I say. But the story is now fire this cabin, we
Jin-Yi Yu: Moved to the east to start the whole life of El Nino. We also have this rust. We will bring Colada all the way to Australia. And when he hit the Australia. There's the entire continent. So here
Jin-Yi Yu: And here is Marina in the Indonesia. So, or ocean way pocket pocket for iOS, it cannot go easily into the Indian Ocean. So also Martha in the personal cannot go into Indian Ocean easy because we have island chain here and broccoli ocean there's only two
Jin-Yi Yu: Air tours very narrow straight of for for now. Straight up pacific ocean water can leak.
Jin-Yi Yu: From personal into the Indian Ocean. So basically always way pocket Australia is basically see or so when his way he the war he can refracted return back
Jin-Yi Yu: from west to east and but I still carry a co author. So this quarter will return Barry them back with amber, you will actually come to come to our
Jin-Yi Yu: Caribbean coast in because Caribbean coast. Now we have all mother going on right so this quarter.
Jin-Yi Yu: Propagate to the west hit Australia in return, it is still a koala still cold water still go on, go on a call when it comes to these South American coast it cancel out the original on water effect. And that's why this is showing here in this speaker.
Jin-Yi Yu: After this raw Speedway return from Australia power South America when he arrived in South America, the El Nino will
Jin-Yi Yu: Change from very large instantly becomes smaller and when these return kawata come back someday even even not only can saw this original El Nino so you only know coco, coco, coco and
Jin-Yi Yu: When it comes to winter time, then this way. Return to South American coast and then stop it growing and make a
Jin-Yi Yu: Dying Dying Dying Dying on it, but you didn't stop at zero you even go even colder and become Danny where it becomes Amina that we become going from east to west, Ma, you will put us a warm wave here.
Jin-Yi Yu: And it producer not let me start here, if you will reverse everything we just this quiet now you're going to produce a
Jin-Yi Yu: Co wave here. Some kinds going to kick kick Colada here and warm water is going to show up on the west.
Jin-Yi Yu: Yeah, and reverse the whole process. Okay, so I hope you understand what I say here, but a key thing is that
Jin-Yi Yu: When we produce when he produced two wave one
Jin-Yi Yu: To rely try to make a on, you know, grow the added to the
Jin-Yi Yu: Left tried to kill the El Nino, but is going one public a very quickly to the South American coast and El Nino grow which server interaction with the utmost of sort of positive feedback.
Jin-Yi Yu: And this that the CO way, try to kill El Nino because it still need to go from Central Pacific to
Jin-Yi Yu: The other side of the ocean and then returned from the western side ocean and all the way back to Eastern style here so it takes a long time.
Jin-Yi Yu: Go from Central Pacific to hear the warm western Pacific and return from western Pacific to Eastern presented here. El Nino. So these long time is called the day
Jin-Yi Yu: Because the mechanism to kill El Nino that process need to first go to the other side. Ocean and return from Western personally to eastern Pacific, and that's why the that
Jin-Yi Yu: It takes time for the Cure cater to come to Eastern side to kill a Amina and how long is it gonna take these these Kira like wave to to come back to the
Jin-Yi Yu: South American coast. It depends on how peak always is always very, very big. For example, this is our Pacific today.
Jin-Yi Yu: And in La, la, our procedures and for some reason you tectonic pray in 10 millions. A year later, our personalization become this big much bigger.
Jin-Yi Yu: Than a means this carrier, though, the way that try to stop the arena is going to take more time to go to the other side of the ocean and come back. So now we're
Jin-Yi Yu: Late even more when you, who is the bigger ocean that clearing mechanism is going to happen at a much later time.
Jin-Yi Yu: And with the wider ocean this killing mechanism is going to happen much later time. Now, will allow these positive feedback to have more time to grow. So if our Pacific Ocean can become very, very big. So right now is called at least
Jin-Yi Yu: Right. He stopped in winter time, stop growing because that's where we Skeeter return go to western Pacific and come back to South America. The key.
Jin-Yi Yu: So that's why our El Nino stop here. But for some reason, if our Pacific Ocean become to tie the size of the size then
Jin-Yi Yu: It will allow this positive feedback to grow even longer. So our El Nino is going to grow even longer is this is not going to stop it. When that is gonna even
Jin-Yi Yu: Much, much larger area, you know, maybe go to the next sprint high and then not to come back to stop it and I only know who that is.
Jin-Yi Yu: OK. So the key thing is the whole idea is that this delay is related to the size of ocean. So this is a computer models simulation. So they think
Jin-Yi Yu: It paid zero you produce everything producer Wesley, we saw on the eastern side to produce a character. Wait, I tried to warn me on, you know, that's why I put a record.
Jin-Yi Yu: On the western side you produce the recipe where I try to Korea and, you know, you can see that this woman you felt pocket to South American coast. Very, very fast only 50
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, because cowboy propagate faster than raspy and raspberries brace brace brace brace know until he reached South
Jin-Yi Yu: Australia coast when you hit Australia, cause he returned SEE HIS CO Otter RETURN RETURN RETURN RETURN RETURN RETURN RETURN RETURN RETURN RETURN go back and then eventually it takes probably almost one
Jin-Yi Yu: Almost 175 days which is almost half a year for this Peter Cook going to Indonesia and then returned from Indonesia to South America, stop the hosting of it. So that's why we have a delay ocean response, which is referring to this raspy way. Okay.
Jin-Yi Yu: So pay Saturday. I'll say the theory, the ocean pacing has to be big enough to produce the delay.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right from ocean way publication fracture, so he can be shown not only the Pacific Ocean is pretty wide enough to allow such
Jin-Yi Yu: Today, as have to be big enough for areas of growth. So that's why the Indian Ocean is to consider too small to produce this is what happened to Indian Ocean is that nice. Okay, so basically
Jin-Yi Yu: For Indian Ocean.
Jin-Yi Yu: Indian Ocean so small. Right. So when we produce a Western when and it try to number two here so small. Now I produce a Western when, for example, he tried to bring the warm water.
Jin-Yi Yu: To go to the eastern Indian Ocean and then colada. Try to go to the Western
Jin-Yi Yu: Indian Ocean. Right. And then when this way propagate to use the Indian Ocean became the grow back maybe fight when we could enter
Jin-Yi Yu: But ocean this intelligence. So some of these coding effect pocket to Africa coast and in return quickly in probably two weeks.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right. So, this woman in fact come to hear after one week and and then two weeks data. Another week later this coating come back. So this only this woman in the in the ocean only have one week.
Jin-Yi Yu: To grow and it cannot be very, very happy, right. So because ocean is too small. So this killer go to Western and coming back to East Coast quickly.
Jin-Yi Yu: And this woman in the eastern side of Beijing does not have enough time to grow. That's why you do not
Jin-Yi Yu: Observe any El Nino phenomena in the Indian Ocean only personalization is speaker now. So now also as I say in the future if for some reason our architectonic activity make our Pacific Ocean getting even an even larger.
Jin-Yi Yu: Much wider than today, then this El Nino is even larger entity today. I only know can grow to see temperature can warm up to four to five degrees, see if we have a wider or bigger.
Jin-Yi Yu: Bigger Pacific Ocean, the El Nino intensity can call maybe at greasy authentic greasy warmer.
Jin-Yi Yu: Human eval personalizing becomes smaller and smaller then now I only know intensity will reduce fun maximum of 545 degrees to become maybe one to two decreasing
Jin-Yi Yu: If the person watching becomes awesome awesome or as small as Indian Ocean Denny's El Nino phenomena will completely disappear. Okay. I hope you understand what I say here. Now let's continue. So in recent year beginning from 2007 I
Jin-Yi Yu: Pre previous PhD student n g call here. We heard good occasion we discussed that we declare that actually all you see are you just described is for El Nino coming out growing
Jin-Yi Yu: Well, it was born outside South American coast, and that's because 20 century, most alien abductees but if you look at our 21st century El Nino
Jin-Yi Yu: All these warm water coming up directly didn't come up from South American cause he comes directly from international pain right if I have a movie here see
Jin-Yi Yu: Or is it only know that this one is alma mater even coming up from South America and he can directly in is in the center of the city and these
Jin-Yi Yu: These traditional 120 CENTURY, YOU KNOW, A coming from here.
Jin-Yi Yu: But when we come to the 21st century even notice in 1973 about use it as example after tool solid cool cool solid 452 thousand 672 thousand seven 2000 10,000
Jin-Yi Yu: Now, or the 21st century. Our El Nino or grow first showing up.
Jin-Yi Yu: In the Central Pacific. You don't see you on water coming up on here. You'll also notice that this Walmart in the international arena equator is origin and coming from Baja California, look at this. Nobody's How beautiful warm water coming down that we can so that is
Jin-Yi Yu: This is our 20th century arena and look at our son this. That was our 21st century and Nina LOOK OUT OF THE CENTURY Nina it correctly.
Jin-Yi Yu: Always accurate. Okay. That's why in tools are a seven and
Jin-Yi Yu: 29 paper that I always the empty car from this department with declare that actually in the Pacific. We have to El Nino and I call this 21st century or Nina sense opposite only know
Jin-Yi Yu: The traditional El Nino coming from eastern time seven o'clock eastern Pacific Amina so this EP CPR and you know you heard probably very often. Now in a zoom meeting is a product, our department we
Jin-Yi Yu: Invented and we defined it to an Arduino. So I'm not is recognized party research community that you know really has two different paths, but all a theory I explained to you in this earlier this DLC data.
Jin-Yi Yu: Listed as a leader can only explain the traditional Chinese century El Nino coming from South American coast. The 21st century Amina you cannot completely expressed by Ross theory, but I'm not going to
Jin-Yi Yu: Explain my theory to you so you only need to remember these traditional theory. Okay, now let's move on to the last part of this.
Jin-Yi Yu: Chapter we describe variable a long time scale collaboration has caught the cato can scale. And as I mentioned, the International toe famous tea kettle.
Jin-Yi Yu: Can scale where he one is called passivity Association, the is called Atlanta motor vehicle association. So for instance, you only need to remember first measure, you know,
Jin-Yi Yu: What is to come and ology means and how the ocean temperature look like in associate in association with these two potato timescale phenomena sort of passivity chaos is a particular time scale and that the square, especially in North Pacific
Jin-Yi Yu: And I you need us possibility.
Jin-Yi Yu: So you can see that this past the face or PTO the North Pacific is colder than normal, but a tropical eastern Pacific is warmer than normal.
Jin-Yi Yu: In a negative face or PDF pass the mic to means tropical eastern Pacific is co pass the PDF mean tropical Eastern facilities warm
Jin-Yi Yu: And the temperature in the North Pacific always although face from the eastern Pacific. So let me just tell you in the final you're going to be asked this question.
Jin-Yi Yu: What is a positive place a PDF right so positive means tropical personal Eastern visitors warm negatively to move tropical is deficit is cold.
Jin-Yi Yu: But what is called the last person is going to be one when tripoli's tempers is warm the North Pacific is going to be Co master kissing me remember
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, so now let's compare the structure of passivity chaos Asian with Nina. Nina so you know i mean is the basis for for positive things that people also
Jin-Yi Yu: emphases war and now Nina. You mean Eastern VS code and Mac, the phase of PTO Eastern festivals, or call so they look very similar. However, this one happened and into annual
Jin-Yi Yu: Price kill means happen this year, next year, year to year in this one PDF is called the cato timescale mean one
Jin-Yi Yu: Became the article, but they all look they have a similar structure. However, the structure are not exactly the same. You're not is that the when we talk about El Nino Nanny nanny warm up warming or cooling is more naturally
Jin-Yi Yu: around the equator here.
Jin-Yi Yu: Very around equator, but a PDF has the speaker horseshoes pattern. See this woman couldn't go all the way to to Southern California for the El Nino the warming is only around South American coast and most to Central America. It is so PTO has why the
Jin-Yi Yu: sea surface temperature structure around the equator and El Nino is more memory confined here or there is a key thing to remember.
Jin-Yi Yu: And Wikipedia is important because we notice that our climate in the Pacific region or even political change very much. Somewhere around 1979 1919 1976 77. This is a key ear to remember. So our PDF change for negative pay for become positive place.
Jin-Yi Yu: And make a change to make the face again somewhere near 2000 year. Those are in the 20th century. In this next phase means what are our position is going to get
Jin-Yi Yu: Holder right
Jin-Yi Yu: Next to the face after end of the century, and that's why in the visa or call
Jin-Yi Yu: Or up a warning higher status means that we have global warming, global warming. Global chemical Cuba, one more, one since 1970 8090 and they certainly only come to the end of the century, this global problem in temperature become fat.
Jin-Yi Yu: That's called Global and inheritance with Obama satiny become patrolled right and is that mean we don't have global warming. Global warming is a is
Jin-Yi Yu: A lie because how can we can in from Tucson Tucson and want to sign totals and the global temperatures suddenly stopped for a few period of time and NASA relate or PTO because our PDF change from positive
Jin-Yi Yu: To negative face somewhere near 1990 a beta end of 21st century. So all global temperature become called this whole area big area ocean become color and then that's why
Jin-Yi Yu: It kind of part of his anthropogenic warming that human produced. That's why is global warming southern France. And after a while, is your container co op
Jin-Yi Yu: I mentioned this way is because in the past five years. These terminology global warming hackers is very, very hot.
Jin-Yi Yu: Subject. Okay. I want you to understand us every day to the fact that our passivity chaos it and change it from warm
Jin-Yi Yu: To cold face and then cancel our partner and so projecting warming human produce. OK. And now let's go to something called imperfect canto perceived as Asian is basically
Jin-Yi Yu: passivity chaos Asian as like the square here is basically describing how temperature change in the North Pacific and tropical Pacific massing ourselves personally baby, including South Pacific. We can also find us similar
Jin-Yi Yu: ocean temperature change and the potato timescale, and last call I he or into the cato personalization. So basically this impact the cato as personalization is structured in the North Pacific is
Jin-Yi Yu: warm and cold between tropical because Libya north, per se, similar to PTO so into the cato perceive as he is basically the same as
Jin-Yi Yu: Pacific the chaos nation but interrupt the cato personalization, including ocean temperature change in the Southern Pacific. That's the only thing you need to remember if you are working on.
Jin-Yi Yu: Something and then people mentioned in 30 kato perceived as he got confused. How does this interact IP or related passivity caters as you
Jin-Yi Yu: Just tell yourself, they are basically the same right passivity. Can I say only focus on North Pacific a inter Pacific Decatur as Asian
Jin-Yi Yu: Expand that focus into the salesperson or the basic Simpson. OK, so now let's move on to the Atlantic mode indicator session. So how does the attorney multi-decadal session. Look here in Atlantic, you see that somewhere. This is equator.
Jin-Yi Yu: The equator should be here.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, so basically the structure PTO in the passiveness technique you have is warm in the tropical passivity co in the most noisy only post center but you know attorney multi take a fire station. He has three center. He has a sub folder.
Jin-Yi Yu: Warming. And then you have meat.
Jin-Yi Yu: North North Atlantic cooling
Jin-Yi Yu: And then you have another tropical
Jin-Yi Yu: Atlantic one woman. So you have to woman one woman in the support region. The other woman in a tropical Atlantic region and in between the temperature Co. Okay. But basically,
Jin-Yi Yu: Mo means whole North Pacific North Atlantic warm up the whole North Atlantic warm up, but a woman is more near the support origin and more over a
Jin-Yi Yu: Tropical attorney review and last in between. So you have a so called tri polar structure. Okay, so if you if I need to set dramatically showing how the PDF in a Mr. Luke I outsource way.
Jin-Yi Yu: P to
Jin-Yi Yu: North America is going to be have to center one one year in the positive phase and then one co in a nonspecific call now if I'm going to the schematic for the MO.
So ups.
Jin-Yi Yu: And it can
Jin-Yi Yu: Mo. This is North America, South America, Africa so attentive.
Jin-Yi Yu: And how are we going to do the structure. I'm going to do in this way very warm
Jin-Yi Yu: Here in very warm here and last warm or even
Jin-Yi Yu: Not even here but Mo, let me say when you are in a positive phase mo all the North Atlantic
Jin-Yi Yu: Our WARM, WARM, WARM, WARM, WARM, WARM, WARM, WARM, WARM, WARM. When a man is inactive or attorneys cold but INSIDE IS WARM, WARM, WARM, WARM, WARM, WARM in a
Jin-Yi Yu: Polar Regions, or even more in a tropical region or even more in between or less. Okay, everybody can appoint so PTO has
Jin-Yi Yu: To stand up for the accounting multicast rates. And so now importance in remembers recently Atlantic multicultural oscillation change from negative. So in the most of the in the late of the 20th century.
Jin-Yi Yu: Our Atlantic more dedicated event is called a normal but beginning from the end up with 20 century and became a 21st century are authentic become
Jin-Yi Yu: warmer than normal. Okay, so I don't want to go any further complicate story. I just want to remember in a 21st century Atlanta is warmer than
Jin-Yi Yu: Near the last half of the century. So that's why you can read another paper in the past five years trying to focus on how
Jin-Yi Yu: Important it is to produce many, many thing we experienced in the in the past one or 220 years so you can say
Jin-Yi Yu: In the late 20th century when scientists static climate around us and we always think perceiving is the key same
Jin-Yi Yu: Focus is a central is that effect Atlantic effect Indian origin but remember after the 21st century after attending wanted to kick ass Asian becoming a one phase in Atlanta.
Jin-Yi Yu: And I become more important to affect our karmic. Okay, that's the same information. Okay, now you know move around as in, that's all I want to say about this.
Jin-Yi Yu: Collaboration phenomena. Now let me move on to
Let me stop you.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay. So can everybody see the water vapor feedback. Yeah.
Melisa Perut: Yes.
Jin-Yi Yu: Now let me explain this kind of sensitivity.
Jin-Yi Yu: Feedback sensitivity, the chapter.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay.
Jin-Yi Yu: So here we understand timing sensitivity and feedback. So what is common sense at the Wi Fi. So basically we're going to describe to kind of
Jin-Yi Yu: Sense feedback. One is retained too long way radiation, the media to show radiation and most of them are very straightforward and our ad group only pick up a few of them. The lower radiation feedback.
Jin-Yi Yu: We have three of them is prank feedback water vapor feedback and luxurious HIPAA only Russia is more complicated all the everything as
Jin-Yi Yu: Simple. So I make quite a bit of feedback. He wanted his medical feedback negative. If I mean, try to make control our global warming make awkward for me last one was called negative feedback I put it in the in this
Jin-Yi Yu: Arena people color and whatever feedback is a positive feedback make our global warming get even was put in record so
Jin-Yi Yu: And then don't wave feedback has a three pack and they only water vapor everybody's positive. The other two are negative.
Jin-Yi Yu: And show with radiation. Your feedback activity. For example, they opposed positive feedback so that laws are very fearful only illustrated require
Jin-Yi Yu: Explanation. But before we talk about feedback when he will know what his feedback. And why is he reading houses every day to
Jin-Yi Yu: Come, he says activity. So as, as you can see I skipped. Most of the section in this chapter, because I feel for
Jin-Yi Yu: More than half of still in this class, you probably can understand that those discussion because it requires some pride analogy on those subjects. So I skip, skip them.
Jin-Yi Yu: So now let's talk about sensitivity in the panelists to terminology for a sensitivity. So this is our timing system, including atmosphere ocean then eyes, education, not if we put
Jin-Yi Yu: This karma system either by moving catatonic pray or changing our Earth's orbit around sun or change the have a solar cycle, change the interest to our red solar radiation.
Jin-Yi Yu: This initial influence come to our climate system and climate system.
Jin-Yi Yu: Will respond, for example, to radiation by then surface temperature, but when any service temperature change is going to change the convention in ocean atmosphere is going to
Jin-Yi Yu: Affect how much room for fall into the ocean and the ocean animals changes continue to change vegetation eyes, and then they will continue to enter into each other and that oil producer feedback.
Jin-Yi Yu: And this initial forcing come to this kind of system. What is the outcome of this force include this current system.
Jin-Yi Yu: Sort of response have a common system to the force is called time he says activity, but how sensitive sensitive, the climate system is to that forcing is the timing by all these internal interaction we among these different components of our
Jin-Yi Yu: climate system.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right so lost in fashion we seeing each other. Inside is common system is called feedback. Okay so much multicore we can describe this way. So we now want to know when we change something, the force into our kind of system. This force in code S zero right
Jin-Yi Yu: So here, and then we try to see how the surface global warming. So let me just respond to the change of is forcing us to do. The reason we put
Jin-Yi Yu: The I put us because if it can be easily synchronous theater solar heating. If we change sort of radiation. How is the this global mean service temperature is going to change.
Jin-Yi Yu: And you may think that you've increased solar radiation purple tie the surface temperature. She'll respond
Jin-Yi Yu: In proportion on right and that is the initial response, you should expect as call either direct response, the surface temperature relate to
Jin-Yi Yu: The solar radiation right due to that parameter energy balance we discuss those are called the right impact initial impact. But after you want the surface temperature
Jin-Yi Yu: The surface temperature is going to be calling the change is something else that's going to change. For example, how much water vapor, you have
Jin-Yi Yu: And how much water vapor. You have is going to further changes surface temperature and this is called feedback.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right, and I will continue recording so feedback is a process that change the sensitivity sensitivity upperclassmen
Jin-Yi Yu: Response and what is common sense. Typically, the relationship between the manager of the forcing S zero and the mechanism or cramming this chain.
Jin-Yi Yu: Respond to his call center sensitivity. Okay. This one may some still very obstructed on us go this way. Now we say
Jin-Yi Yu: This is exactly the formula I just described. So whatever surface temperature change it n total change beautiful we change the solar
Jin-Yi Yu: Heat heating can come from total one is directory directory some night for how much temperature change that initial change as direction.
Jin-Yi Yu: But is whenever this change is going to change how much water vapor. For example, we change your solar heating
Jin-Yi Yu: And sell it is becoming warmer climate warmer com is going around at a must be home more water vapor. So when you change the sun sunlight be among whatever but inside our climate system is going to affect by this
Jin-Yi Yu: Sort of radiation. So temperature and these solar water vapor change is going to determine our greenhouse effect. So when
Jin-Yi Yu: Whatever change. You can change temperature. So this token has the parents each other to determine the water vapor feedback.
Jin-Yi Yu: And also the soil temperatures radiating effect temperature and temperature change equator. The temperature is can change how did he sell
Jin-Yi Yu: Hard is there is on V, the wind up wind speed is going to transport warming, what color, call it a different way. He transport and he tells political change the temperature. So basically what I want to say is
Jin-Yi Yu: All these complicated mathematical equation here. If we use example, if we have to feedback mechanism. So, basically, is that least. Okay, so why it is hard for me to make you understand this right now. If you don't understand, but Twitter for the exercise this
Jin-Yi Yu: Now that's mentioned, there are three two group of the feedback. I'm going to talk about here. One is a long way feedback. The other is the show a feedback. Right. And don't worry, perhaps three what the Stephen Boltzmann not prank feedback water vapor be back and abstract
Jin-Yi Yu: Only captured need explanation sort of praying feedback is pretty straightforward. So when we have for some reason we warm up our service temperature
Jin-Yi Yu: In seventh heaven your warm up, then the to the power for these Stephen boss month. Notice that if surface temperature one map, then the normally radiation Teresa radiation emitted by us.
Jin-Yi Yu: To space to quote on our climate will also increase by the powerful. So when we are WARM, WARM UP proper temperature we have larger outgoing or radiation been admitted emitted.
Jin-Yi Yu: By us and we will reduce the heating of us, so will cool down us. So these low meridian solace prank Stephen Postman law is always try to cool down or control.
Jin-Yi Yu: The woman who we are warming, you try to make a call when you're calling each other, make it work. So this is a negative feedback anybody has questions now. Okay, now let's go on to the second
Jin-Yi Yu: One normally ready if you've got water vapor feedback. What a baby. That is a positive impact sort of makes things worse when we have global warming.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right temperature one map then will increase the maximum amount of water vapor our atmosphere can hope is due to the state.
Jin-Yi Yu: Process capital equation when it must be can hold more water vapor, you will produce a glass greenhouse effect greenhouse effect is going to make
Jin-Yi Yu: Our temperature warmer even more for now global temperature woman even more the class a couple will allow our must be the whole even more water vapor more water vapor more greenhouse effect.
Jin-Yi Yu: Greenhouse effect even more warming so it keeps looping looping looping open up produce a positive feedback, right, so I can quickly on Israel because everybody understand that.
Jin-Yi Yu: Now here this is the only example I put in this slide just start actually that chapter, give you a lot of mathematical derivation. So this one's hard to say. How did you quantify.
Jin-Yi Yu: The feedback, right. So I'm not. Let's take water vapor feedback as example because water vapor feedback is determined by this causes copper equation in classes copper equation to is that the maximum on water, but he is
Jin-Yi Yu: His control only by a temperature right and controlled by such a way so wherever the change of the water vapor. He is
Jin-Yi Yu: How much the other way mastermind my water vapor amount in a coma speaking now is related to how much temperature change in this is
Jin-Yi Yu: What we want to find out. Right. And this is controlled by this fiscal law. So it's, it causes crop pro equation. So let's use this cause a couple equation to quantify the water vapor paper right so much magic divisions that is
Jin-Yi Yu: Because you have the E S t t equal to low temperature alpha something man is alpha something here. So now let's move this DT to decide.
Jin-Yi Yu: To become dt. And then over this tea. So here we have ale and alpha minus alpha something and then we have the IES here right now. Let's put because
Jin-Yi Yu: He is a pressure. So, p equals low RT. The ideal case now and low is density is on over alpha. So, basically we have p alpha equal to RT.
Jin-Yi Yu: Hours here and the p is the pressure of water vapor which is in this equation SPS so I do guess know tell us the maximum water vapor pressure ties is sufficient volume is equal to RT. So that means this alpha can be replaced by party over he
Jin-Yi Yu: Will become
Jin-Yi Yu: T over, he and we take these E or no.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, so now we divide
Jin-Yi Yu: This by E. S. So that means your condo.
Jin-Yi Yu: Based on this one. He is is called RT over alpha right so
Jin-Yi Yu: That means we are, we already have alpha here. So, how we need to put RT. He somewhere here, all the other way around. RT on the bottom. So that's where this equation become so all I want to say is telling you the percentage change your water vapor
Jin-Yi Yu: Deal to the percentage change of temperature is in this equation. So, the percentage change your water vapor on the right hand side. Nothing's our equation is related to the percentage change of temperature.
Jin-Yi Yu: amplified by this factor or hearty, and this is the thing he is gas constant is the global temperature and this value is about 20 so restaurant telling you that
Jin-Yi Yu: The water vapor feedback will amplify forever, your temperature change by 20 times. So when the temperature
Jin-Yi Yu: Increase by 1% the amount of water vapor. You know, it must be is going to increase by 20%. So this is a very big change. So that's why, and the 1% change of temperature is all three degrees C. So,
Jin-Yi Yu: Why be so strategic receive 20% if apathetic, we see one pic we should change in temperature or corresponding to 7% increase in water vapor among in Otter much fear.
Jin-Yi Yu: So because of the water vapor amount in our chemistry increased quickly after when we increase the cobra temperature is increased will have a score track more normal radiation and produce global warming. So it's going to make global warming or us. Okay, so that's a positive feedback.
Jin-Yi Yu: From one to seven minutes, I'm going to do this abstract. So it is a typical one
Jin-Yi Yu: So naturally creep up basic techniques. OK. So the key thing is that Greece. So this is our most radical chopper stable temperature very warm Nina surface. Whoa, I'm a tab and if we are Sakura here. If you're astronaut here.
Jin-Yi Yu: You go down to our radiation coming out funk. Our us most already and get out of our climate system does not come, first serve it because all these dominator reservation. Try to a military service absorbed by our atmosphere claptrap by our atmosphere.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right, so this summer edition ever go out. So what the lower it isn't really can our current system High Park is coming up from the top of our troposphere. So if we have very, very so
Jin-Yi Yu: So how selfish, try to put try to produce no more radiation couldn't sell for example 30 was but ours. The top of the troposphere temperature is so cool. You only produce
Jin-Yi Yu: 10 lots of water cooling. So the original we supposed to cool down by the meridian due to surface temperature by 30 was now we only and only last 10 was so we have plenty of greenhouse effect.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right, so how strong the greenhouse effect depends on how the temperature surface temperature different Frank
Jin-Yi Yu: tropopause temperature. So, the temperature difference between surface temperature and tropopause temperature is our lab straight right not rain.
Jin-Yi Yu: Is equal to the temperature at a service monitors temperature at the chopper. Pause
Jin-Yi Yu: Right, the paper by the path of the tropopause so if surface temperature in trouble post images are very different. That means Napster is Bailhache what happened.
Jin-Yi Yu: We are going to have if not sure is very large. We're going to have a very strong greenhouse effect, right. We'll keep another key inside our monster because we only
Jin-Yi Yu: Lost in me go Murray was a very, very cold temperature Hebrew lobster is become very, very smart. That means the surface to the top.
Jin-Yi Yu: tropopause temperatures almost very close to surface temperature. So, the lower it isn't coming up on a surface or coming up from
Jin-Yi Yu: tropopause make no difference because the temperature similar right so the greenhouse effect small that's the basic idea. So now, based on this idea. Let's see what happened after we have global warming.
Jin-Yi Yu: So this is pregnant is up present a temperature and applicable. I mean if service or my pal wanting to decreasing
Jin-Yi Yu: And tropopause image also automatically see they warm up about the same sort of temperature different between tropopause as surface remain to be decreasing
Jin-Yi Yu: As I said earlier, the service, the temperature difference between surface temperature and chopper port temperature determine how strong the greenhouse effect is
Jin-Yi Yu: The larger temperature difference between the top and the bottom of the troposphere, the larger greenhouse effect. So, because in this case if illustrators and change.
Jin-Yi Yu: No, not obviously change in the future, future warming, then obviously still the same as present day, then this substrate does not
Jin-Yi Yu: Add any does that make our greenhouse effect stronger or we could entertain so it doesn't interfere with our climate change. So in this case, it does not have any feedback. Okay.
Jin-Yi Yu: Now in a situation happen with global warming is service warm up glass, Nicole. Let the top of AWS or more. So the top of us temperature become very close to surface temperature
Jin-Yi Yu: So this means, as I say in the top or pause a surface temperature become very, very close the greenhouse effects the model right greenhouse effects tomato means that we are going to
Jin-Yi Yu: After with your copper. Copper woman if 72 one mom. Nice. Then the the tropopause temperature, then this lab sts going to reduce
Jin-Yi Yu: The global warming up warming glass was right. So that's why I put is a negative feedback. Now, if in the other situation.
Jin-Yi Yu: Applicable woman surface temperature warmer, much, much more than the tropopause temperature. So now the choppers temperature is
Jin-Yi Yu: Even call that a server temperature. So we're going to produce even stronger greenhouse effect. So this lab stretching is going to make
Jin-Yi Yu: Our greenhouse effect even stronger in the future, you know, all means come and we are going to make our global warming was
Jin-Yi Yu: And because this lab straight produce a positive effect. Okay. I hope everybody still follow me, follow me here.
Jin-Yi Yu: So let me go back to. So when we talk about it. So now in order to determine in the future, our abstract feedback is going to be positive or negative, then we need to see how the triple
Jin-Yi Yu: Triple spherical temperature is going to change in the future. So here is show you how many
Jin-Yi Yu: Temperature is cold and warm or cold in the future in our atmosphere from the equator to nos pop into cells per phone service when sorry me back to the purple troposphere to Solomon.
Jin-Yi Yu: So if you look at this slide we notice that in the future. Apple global warming is a CPA point five mins we have a was global warming scenario me
Jin-Yi Yu: Everywhere in the troposphere or map. So that's why they are already everywhere in the stratosphere coat and a sweater in the this blue collar.
Jin-Yi Yu: And the woman in the troposphere in the tropical region, we noticed that more warming happen in the apple troposphere hood is more right here. So the lab straight initially today is that race.
Jin-Yi Yu: In a tropical region, but
Jin-Yi Yu: We have global warming the aperture space for more then surface. So the lapse rate is going to become less and sorting.
Jin-Yi Yu: The upper part of troubles with image and become closer to surface and greenhouse effect is going to be smaller.
Jin-Yi Yu: So that's going to cool down the cooling reducing greenhouse if lapse rate is going to reduce greenhouse effect.
Jin-Yi Yu: reduce greenhouse very going to produce a negative feedback. And that's why in the chart because in the tropics, the live stream is expected decrease in response to put in the future and
Jin-Yi Yu: This decrease lapse rate is going to this.
Jin-Yi Yu: Decrease. That sure is going to produce a negative feedback on surface temperature. So, not for is going to try to reduce global warming in a tropical region.
Jin-Yi Yu: But in the polar region se the service damage a woman, more so instead service dimensional or more so in this case the industry. Today's today's
Jin-Yi Yu: A in a future the lobster is going to be at peace or more today and then cool down a woman last at a time. Right, so that's going to increase that stressor in the in the polar region or equal to the
Jin-Yi Yu: polar region, the reverse is happening because lab stray increase right so you're actually increasing. We're going to have stronger greenhouse effect. So Napster is going to make global warming.
Jin-Yi Yu: Even was in a tropical region so that in the polar region so frustrating trying to make global warming, was he was in the polar region.
Jin-Yi Yu: And try to come in total global warming in the tropical region. Okay, so all explanation became from this slide. Okay. So now the question is why.
Jin-Yi Yu: In the future, our warming in a tropical region is going to be more in the
Jin-Yi Yu: Apple troposphere in a polar region. The woman is going to be more in a law troposphere. I'm going to go over this one on Thursday, and they'll concrete. The, the paleoclimate chapter 10 answers to your stop here. Anyone
Jin-Yi Yu: Has a question.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, for adding one of you come in day the final exam will be open book and you will you will be given one and half hour to do a final exam starting next Monday to between next Monday. And next Wednesday.
Jin-Yi Yu: If not for the question. No other question. I'm gonna stop here. Thank you, everybody.
Melisa Perut: Thank you.