Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, I think we have everybody here and let me begin to share the screen first
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, so now we are moving to the last part of this.
Jin-Yi Yu: The course which I'm going to describe the common phenomena in our climate system and the common phenomenon. I'm going to describe is going to separate into
Jin-Yi Yu: Two part one is more related to current, the president president a climate system. And I'm going to describe quickly few of the important climbing phenomena that you may encounter even I mean in any field of the
Jin-Yi Yu: Earth system size, not only for physical karma. But even if you work on biology or chemistry or out of feel you may read the paper and still encounter that mentioning of those phenomena. And the second part of crime if in America mean is more related to the climate change.
Jin-Yi Yu: Is more like how the Pedro climate change on
Jin-Yi Yu: Take a Tony scale on
Jin-Yi Yu: Soda scale. And that's the cool part of climbing phenomena. I'm going to describe and then besides that, I'm going to discard a sensitivity and feedback process because some of those
Jin-Yi Yu: common phenomenon macaque intensifies so feedback process, even though the feedback. We're going to talk about in this cast is not exactly that kind of feedback that support some of the present day comics, such as El Nino, but the concept of similar and feedback. We're going to talk about
Jin-Yi Yu: This today, or I cannot finish today is more relatable describing. If we have initial forcing a prior to our common system.
Jin-Yi Yu: And the end how much the climate system is going to change internal, for example, the surface temperature and that the current system response or climate system to any initial forcing
Jin-Yi Yu: Is not only depends on something direct response but depends on a lot of the feedback process now was built in, in our current system. So as the actual said nine. I'm going to talk about
Jin-Yi Yu: So I hopefully I'm going to finish this tool path first pies natural eight. I'm going to describe some of the most important common
Jin-Yi Yu: Variation phenomena in our system.
Jin-Yi Yu: And so here the title is nature climate variability and
Jin-Yi Yu: This one.
Jin-Yi Yu: Nature means that
Jin-Yi Yu: A could be forced or could be
Jin-Yi Yu: Forced
Jin-Yi Yu: Equal force by
Jin-Yi Yu: Nature activity that volcano. For example, and it could be forced by human activity and so pathetic forcing and enforce that means that we have, but I must fear ocean, then maybe cause fear they interact with each other to give rise to certain common phenomenon I seen, for example, is a
Jin-Yi Yu: So, but in this part I'm going to mostly just talk about these unforced that may come from directly coming from our atmosphere or coming from atmosphere interact with ocean.
Jin-Yi Yu: As the the phenotype phenomena. I'm going to describe
Jin-Yi Yu: So the field. I mean, I'm going to describe can be separate into
Jin-Yi Yu: That first into the atmosphere.
Jin-Yi Yu: And you know atmosphere. You can separate them into two parts. The tropical path of climate phenomena.
Jin-Yi Yu: And extra tropical at MS paranormal phenomena. So in the tropical parts.
Jin-Yi Yu: Of the characteristic of our climate phenomena is it is mostly related deep compaction process.
Jin-Yi Yu: And he has to be described by most dynamic
Jin-Yi Yu: Every time when we talk about these tropical climate or weather phenomena. It is very often those phenomena come with a very strong connection. But as typical measure means
Jin-Yi Yu: If we have deep commercial and that means we have shadow Commission. The commission means something. For example, a producer cow like standard standard go all the way to the top of our troposphere.
Jin-Yi Yu: To propose, which is around 10 kilometer. Those are called Deep compassion.
Jin-Yi Yu: And but sometimes we also produce that compassion, a cow not doesn't go that high right and they are very close to the surface and for example Stratos card.
Jin-Yi Yu: Those are called shallow
Jin-Yi Yu: Convection
Jin-Yi Yu: Yeah, and in the tropical region a lotto weather and climate phenomena come please deep connection. So this one we have. I'm going to describe to you the modern Julian Alsatian is has a very interesting, important
Jin-Yi Yu: Is a very interesting and important phenomena, even if you don't study physical karma, you may still heard of our customer this phenomena. Very often, and when we come to the extra tropical part of our atmosphere.
Jin-Yi Yu: Then this path is not necessary in order to understand all these weather phenomena or climate phenomena we do not necessarily need to involve moisture. We can just use the try dynamic
Jin-Yi Yu: Just thinking about saturation or these kinds of things. And we are going to mostly disquiet a key in in Amina which is called Arctic observation here.
Jin-Yi Yu: And our RTS Asian Tony happen in the entity region Southern Hemisphere. He has a counterpart here and when these Arctic oscillation means we have very, very strong to stream.
Jin-Yi Yu: In this test trim.
Jin-Yi Yu: Sometime more national sometime most also. And this is a very important phenomena that
Jin-Yi Yu: Affect the winter temperature in the United States, so you can hear this, this term Arctic Association very often in the TV News.
Jin-Yi Yu: In TV news gonna say we are now having a at the oscillation event right now the gesture is called a call it tends to be is going to more brace also across to the United States and Britain or is cold air from Port orange into the United States and cause the
Jin-Yi Yu: Severe weather in the coming few
Jin-Yi Yu: Days or one week. And this is a very important phenomena and this phenomenon. When you localize only in the
Jin-Yi Yu: Atlantic region is called North Atlantic conservation. So all I understand right now is, even though I have many different terminology here that link to the extra tropical weather phenomena, but actually some of those. This is the last
Jin-Yi Yu: 1234 terminology, they are actually the same thing. They are all related jet stream.
Jin-Yi Yu: The spray summon
Jin-Yi Yu: In the north, south, the Russian. The only the other extra tropical phenomena cramming phenomena in our atmosphere that is not related to this gesture machines is called DNA.
Jin-Yi Yu: See big
Jin-Yi Yu: Nose America pattern and this terminology come up very often and is also very important to describe the weather phenomena and climate condition in the United States, particularly important to the West Coast of the United States. So it also led
Jin-Yi Yu: To a group of atmospheric of economic phenomena. I'm going to describe
Jin-Yi Yu: In the extra tropical region.
Jin-Yi Yu: Then I'm going to describe
Jin-Yi Yu: Only the modern Julian oscillation
Jin-Yi Yu: Manchurian is
Jin-Yi Yu: A scientist that discovered this phenomena.
Jin-Yi Yu: And this phenomena in the tropics. Then I'm going to move on to other must fear.
Jin-Yi Yu: Interact with ocean and most important one of course is El Nino
Jin-Yi Yu: And then at the very end, I'm going to introduce two of the most important Decatur.
Jin-Yi Yu: Climate phenomena. So, for example, during the 1990s, or 1980s. A lot of how expensive house was feel near the beach area of Miami, Florida.
Jin-Yi Yu: What it can do that because during sometime around 1980s or 1970s this phenomena Pacific Decatur Association happen to be in a particular face.
Jin-Yi Yu: Positive or negative phase is corn across the United States to have fewer hurricane in the Atlantic region, and that's why human the society feel that there is not much hurry can come to Miami, Florida.
Jin-Yi Yu: Pitch. So that's why the developer appeal a lot of houses are on a pitch area.
Jin-Yi Yu: But suddenly this
Jin-Yi Yu: Nature up and down phenomena happen every 10 to 20 years we can go into the other face and then
Jin-Yi Yu: As a result, it pretty much much many, many more very can come to the United States. And then that's going to cause human activity impact on human life and that's why this is a very, very important phenomena.
Jin-Yi Yu: Operate on
Jerry Lin: The Cato time skill.
Jin-Yi Yu: To happen in the Pacific region and there is a similar to kato variation happen in the Atlantic region. Last call mo Atlantic more tea kettle oscillation know what happened. He is United States.
Jin-Yi Yu: Us and Asia.
Jin-Yi Yu: And this is Australia and is equator.
Jin-Yi Yu: passivity total isolation happening here in Atlanta multi ticket associate happen there. So here is complicated because about 1020 years maybe time when you go up and down company one cycle.
Jin-Yi Yu: Take about 10 to 20 years and he is a talented multi decade as an engine because go up and down, complete the whole cycle somewhere around 40 to 50 or 60 to 80 could really be longer than the wine. The Pacific okay so
Jin-Yi Yu: This is available. We want to tell you, and everything happened in atmosphere that tend to be at a shorter time scale.
Jin-Yi Yu: Means those phenomena happen and goes away happen and cause away take about one years around ear to ear. So, for example, PA or his chest trim moving north and south. Those are called in
Jin-Yi Yu: And no variability timing appear appear those coming phenomena happen this year and then disappear next year and come back again the E after next year. For example, and this emmerdale is called in to seize and now
Jin-Yi Yu: Phenomena it has even shorter time scale than those gestures and moving up and down in that activity, not the Russian this ensure says, I'm not a skill about 30 days to 90 days.
Jin-Yi Yu: When MTR happen and do happen in a tropical region and usually happen here. He says, Asia, right. And this is in the middle. India here.
Jin-Yi Yu: And this is Africa and Australia as here. So, all these m&a activity.
Jin-Yi Yu: They were born in Indian Ocean more to
Jin-Yi Yu: Western nearly more into content and then like Indonesia and party. I then and then continue more to north of Australia and moving continued moving east or
Jin-Yi Yu: When they move around in the equatorial region. They were sent there will disturb atmosphere and produce way we emotion and this way, the margins will come, come, come, come to the United States.
Jin-Yi Yu: And the cost rainfall first happen in Seattle or Portland, Oregon Pacific Northwest. When those deep compassion continue goes through
Jin-Yi Yu: The equatorial region in the Pacific those rainfall Pam will gradually move from Seattle Portland, San Francisco and come to Los Angeles.
Jin-Yi Yu: And that's why last phenomena is very important empty. Oh, even though they are in a tropical region, but they produce the cow release or are he here in a tropical region and those heating release. Are these
Jin-Yi Yu: Deep commercial activity is going to send wait pocket pocket pocket pocket come to the United States. And so those way happen.
Jin-Yi Yu: 123 or four weeks or even five weeks before rainfall come to the United States. So it gives us the ability to predict when the rainfall is going to happen in Seattle important
Jin-Yi Yu: In San Francisco in Los Angeles. Los why they are very, very important as National Weather Service in the past few years, pay particular attention to this phenomena, because this phenomena. Keep us to predict when a phenomena.
Jin-Yi Yu: Two or three weeks ago. This is a very important because in the past, meteorology, when we study whether meteorology only
Jin-Yi Yu: Or the knowledge you will learn from winter storm or anything. We learn based on meteorology only allow us to make the forecast reasonable and could forecast five day, six days, seven day or up to one week.
Jin-Yi Yu: Longer than one week, two weeks is very difficult to predict and that's why those phenomena a call in for seasonal
Jin-Yi Yu: Their time scales past 30 day perfect it they control how our atmosphere going to change and several weeks.
Jin-Yi Yu: Two months, three months time scale. That's why this is particularly important, even when Obama was a president he particularly in honor of his speech mentioned that
Jin-Yi Yu: Understand the last phenomena is going to allow United States to developing the ability to to the forecast beyond two weeks, right, this phenomena is very important.
Jin-Yi Yu: Then we talk about El Nino this happen to every two years, or every four years every four years or a we
Jin-Yi Yu: Up to a this seven or eight years, right. So, the importance of El Nino. Everybody knows that. Because he's our news. And then when we come to this Decatur is an order of 10 2030 4050 years time scale and those Decatur timescale is the brain important for us to design for example.
Jin-Yi Yu: Printing. What's up, I want to do in the coming one decay to decay because you want to know in 10 or 20 or 30 years data.
Jin-Yi Yu: We're going to have a positive phase or a negative phase or Pacific Dental Association.
Jin-Yi Yu: That will affect. For example, how frequently the Santana when is going to happen, how strong the Santana, who is going to be
Jin-Yi Yu: It took at the 2013 2014 right, for example. And then if you want to do this. You want to know this. You want to know how
Jin-Yi Yu: 2030 years later, is the passivity ke RS assessing going to in the positive phase one, phase according phase.
Jin-Yi Yu: One is a one interface or coding phase. So, not always going to be stronger, more frequent more frequent or weaker and less frequent because that's going to affect
Jin-Yi Yu: Whether or not we can get wildfire. And that's going to affect how we printing the CT development in urban, for example. So those things are very important. So that's why I'm saying this chapter. I just want to give you
Jin-Yi Yu: A tip squishing power last weather phenomena. So you need to know what those phenomena are you need to know where they occur, which means in the atmosphere.
Jin-Yi Yu: Or in the ocean in a tropical region or Emirati that's the basic knowledge you need to know and then you need to know how was the time scale. They are involved.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right, and then you try to understand what why the cut produce right are called these have become related to physical concept. And I'm going to give you a very basic knowledge. So you know that this phenomena.
Jin-Yi Yu: Is or is not or is controlled by a car must be a buy, sell or not something that is
Jin-Yi Yu: So those are three thing i want to know basic knowledge seasonality and the driving mechanism. OK.
Jin-Yi Yu: Now let's continue. So here I describe what is a force. What is enforced variability variability means how crummy is
Jin-Yi Yu: Different from the norm. What are under no long term climatology in the past 1020 years 50 years the temperature in herb by a, you know, in
Jin-Yi Yu: December is always for example 75 degree F that's are known and for some reason this year, for example, is 80 degree, then we are
Jin-Yi Yu: We are having a barrel Asian and we have to deviate from normal and that's called bear ability right and the bear Asian deviation found a normal can be enforced or copy force. Right. And for us, means to that because nature was not able to maintain always an
Jin-Yi Yu: cosmetology value the niche always go up and down, up and down, up and down, but there was a mechanism that try to maintain
Jin-Yi Yu: The current system somewhere around a non right to come into parity in a while some reason they move up in that because we have customers via ocean, even at the master along
Jin-Yi Yu: For example up as part of fried fried in some area already set of go outside to go jogging and you you disturb the air, the pressure around you are talking to
Jin-Yi Yu: Chuck trail, then the may amplified because our premise system, our atmosphere is an Armenian system. And even though the small change. You may may empathize to become a big one right. Everybody know this Lawrence, LawRENCE, his argument about is
Jin-Yi Yu: chaotic system so famous example is that if you are standing on top of a mountain right skills.
Jin-Yi Yu: Ski Area on your right hand side you hold a cone on your lap inside your home. Another con and they or just break this took on a encombe are very close to each other. So when you drop you off the call on your right hand side.
Jin-Yi Yu: Then you fall down going down this way and then you do the same thing.
Jin-Yi Yu: Drop the call on your left hand side, be they are very close to each other. Initially, right, because they're so close to each other. But there are some this
Jin-Yi Yu: System between them at the very beginning, but because this the slope of this ski trail has up and down as
Jin-Yi Yu: Go up and go down on a surface. So, initially this coupon or coupon are very close to each other, but they were the difference in the
Jin-Yi Yu: Distance Mecca amplify amplify improper. Improper so when they come to the the heel of the riskiest the ski area. This to coin can be far
Jin-Yi Yu: Away from each other. And that's because this skill tree has a lot of non menial surface and this is the fact that
Jin-Yi Yu: We are similar to our current system. Our system is even after must be around is a nonlinear system. So any initial smoke disturbance or difference can be empathize through those nonlinear system.
Jin-Yi Yu: And to participate ability. So last bear Asian create the auto this nonlinear system internal to our atmosphere internal to our ocean internal to our climate system is called
Jin-Yi Yu: forced the variability arise from internal dynamic without any specific cause. Now what is that internal dynamic most important one is because our
Jin-Yi Yu: Premise system is nonlinear. Right. So, and then what is the force.
Jin-Yi Yu: Force variability could be force could be related to change in the boundary condition of our climate system right and such as volcano and what is the boundary condition.
Jin-Yi Yu: So you can see the boundary condition can be into a the first boundary condition is if you can see the our karmic system as a whole atmosphere ocean then transfer. This is one system.
Jin-Yi Yu: Then the boundary condition are only to one is this climate system is sitting on the ticket Tony pray our US sorry us
Jin-Yi Yu: Which is a component we never talked about in this class because this class, we are talking about the change of our climate and a human lives a timescale, right. So we had 10 years. Hundred years 200 years three Andrea or up to thousands of years, but we are sitting on
Jin-Yi Yu: Earth, which has a crust outside right
Jin-Yi Yu: Let me erase that.
Jin-Yi Yu: So our and our side has a lot of land ocean. The reason we have then ocean is actually because our outside the skin that
Jin-Yi Yu: Our spouse or partner of ours is several tectonic praying one pray we pray we pray the push on each other when one trick pony. Pray is going, Lord, and the other one in the water. Amir would become an ocean here in here, become confident and when in those tectonic pray was floating UNK
Jin-Yi Yu: Lava inside our liquid us
Jin-Yi Yu: Yeah.
Jin-Yi Yu: So he has to Connie pray here. One, pray, pray, we pray and inside is liquid lava. Keep on moving and
Jin-Yi Yu: Please come back convection. So these tectonic prey is going to move slowly when they most likely they're going to change.
Jin-Yi Yu: Our climate, because it changed ours see them distribution and the same happens tectonics pray more on top of each other quite phenomenal work is going to be
Jin-Yi Yu: Happen happening with these Tick tock tectonic pray. Moving on, couple each other.
Jin-Yi Yu: First quake and Makana right and they are so all these tectonic pray is going to change our seed and distribution and is also going to
Jin-Yi Yu: Control how fast or how slow the carbon dioxide can be injected into our atmosphere so they can change our climate in such a way. And those are one. This is one of the two important boundary condition.
Jin-Yi Yu: That is going to produce force their ability
Jin-Yi Yu: To our climate system in the era.
Jin-Yi Yu: Boundary condition is the Sunday at the lever to our bows climbing system and so depends on Sunday is coming stronger or weaker is going to affect our climate and all the summer activities change is related to this course solar
Jin-Yi Yu: Skin scale.
Jin-Yi Yu: Where ability thats related so opposite or earth tilting angle autism, which I'm going to discuss next week, so they are to boundary condition that can produce forced it is to force my ability to our climate system. One is soda scale.
Jin-Yi Yu: Variability and the R is tech atomic
Jin-Yi Yu: Scale variability and sort of it appears on all the hundreds 10s to hundreds or thousands of year and tectonic
Jin-Yi Yu: climate variability or climate change is happening on the manias timescale. Okay, let's go back to
Jin-Yi Yu: Welcome back here. Okay, so first up is, we did a boundary condition such as well. Can know or soul obey appear at nature side or could be due to human activity and
Jin-Yi Yu: So pathogenic side and Foursquare purity can occur and very out of morality or payscale found a week or two that we usually know as whether or an indoor season of therapy it that my result from
Jin-Yi Yu: That's why I'm talking about in the tropical region, the empty. Oh.
Jin-Yi Yu: So you so we have daily. So we will appear. This is where winter storm and in sustainability does call and say, oh, or could be coming from the interaction between ocean, and it must be a two on this internal time scale or even go to the cato timescale. Okay.
Jin-Yi Yu: And they appear the last thousand two meanings of ear may be caused by interaction between us all the top parameter and tech pony pray. Okay, now I'm not go to describe this
Jin-Yi Yu: Particular weather phenomena that is Natalie's
Jin-Yi Yu: Let me adjust my screen. Just a minute. Okay.
Jin-Yi Yu: So now, as I say, I'm going to describe the famous
Jin-Yi Yu: Famous means a lot of people know this los phenomena, not only meteorology, or physical oceanography and known and okay and
Jin-Yi Yu: So they are famous because they are important. So I'm going to begin with a Tomas fear and then we'll talk about in the extra tropical region of thermosphere and then the tropical region of the atmosphere.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, so, you know, extra tropical part of our thermosphere. The most important one is this three is for those are zone gesture related chat stream.
Jin-Yi Yu: Where Asia and this one is read a two way be motion.
Jin-Yi Yu: In the atmosphere. Okay, so this this one asked me to talk about
Jin-Yi Yu: It is called Arctic our session. This is the most famous one. Yeah. And at the association. Sometimes he was also call me one more.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay.
Jin-Yi Yu: I know
Jin-Yi Yu: I can tell you the reason why it is called anymore because RT isolation and no more are created by my PhD advisor Dennis Hartman and my PhD dissertation committee.
Jin-Yi Yu: Michael artist. He called out the association then is hotter man my the awesome at our textbook equal in your mom and this is this put terminology comma after I completed my PhD dissertation, which I
Jin-Yi Yu: Walk on describing why the gesturing in our atmosphere, some time on also sometime most also and I call this phenomena of vacillation for not only the rotation. The reason I call this term is because sometimes in the
Jin-Yi Yu: There's a professor at Florida State University. He basically study similar to what Ross. ROSS be, do you have a rotating tank, you have a routine of liquid inside this ring and you rotate this room in these horizontal direction right and then you hit one side. Yes. So inside this
Jin-Yi Yu: Green you produce a jet stream.
Jin-Yi Yu: In this gesture and Sunday morn also ourselves well. So when I was working on my PhD dissertation. I was supposed to do supposed to develop
Jin-Yi Yu: General Circulation Model for the global atmosphere as. What, then, is to determine, such as me to walk on. And then I try to make my
Jin-Yi Yu: computer model realistic and and think that all the chest trees you stay at a 30 degree not during winter time, but in my computer model Rochester. Keep it moving to
Jin-Yi Yu: So I feel very interesting this phenomena and I'm not is this phenomena is similar to that or taking tank that Professor at a college or university was working on. So in Florida State University Professor call is phenomenal in his laboratory any will bring us
Jin-Yi Yu: vacillation so I call my
Jin-Yi Yu: This gesture in my computer model a coin yet by association. So that's the paddle reason that 10 is happening call anyone mo because it's more like you have a routine of just removing around the earth and then this ring move up a motor
Jin-Yi Yu: So basically, those are sensing any normal and the installer hemisphere is Casado annual Mo and obviously he is see the same as any amount at the destination and when you call southern hemisphere anymore he can call in topic.
Jin-Yi Yu: Oscillation systems him and this phenomena. When you localize in North Atlanta is called North Atlantic position. So let's go to this phenomena.
Jin-Yi Yu: This is related gesturing. So here are already show you a long time.
Jin-Yi Yu: Ago. This is equator.
Jin-Yi Yu: And this is surface.
Jin-Yi Yu: 101 solid amoeba.
Jin-Yi Yu: It a top of ours Trump up troposphere is Timmy.
Jin-Yi Yu: Timmy back actually Andrew Mila should be somewhere here.
Jin-Yi Yu: To I
Jin-Yi Yu: Actually should be here is a top of the troposphere. So inside our stratosphere. We have a test stream. Right. This one year.
Jin-Yi Yu: History Wesley Wesley. When you see this is when the time window time we have very, very strong test for him because because the equator import temperature very large port orange is
Jin-Yi Yu: Very, very cold. Right. And in a summer. You can see this gesture is very weak.
Jin-Yi Yu: So this Arctic aspiration is a phenomena read it to this strong just removing more close to polar region or more code to the equatorial region. So Arctic our session.
Jin-Yi Yu: Is a phenomena happen in winter time. So that's a seasonality. I mentioned to you when people say about it as Asian, you have to say oh yeah I know last winter time phenomena.
Jin-Yi Yu: Because only and then you say it as he is the jet stream. Suppose in the troposphere in the wintertime is salts on how strong is it is 10 meter per second 20 meter per second. So this one is properly.
Jin-Yi Yu: So 10 right so this is 2.5. Now, this is how this is profit on 20 so it's 1015 2025 3035 40 so the normal wind speed of our jet stream in the troposphere during winter high
Jin-Yi Yu: Can go to an average is about 40 meter per second. But in the summertime is only about 20 meters per second, we can see that
Jin-Yi Yu: In that will not have. We have very strong tissue in Boise location surrogate Equinox right in this so we are supposed to have just shoot me an average
Jin-Yi Yu: It is through our 360 degree is about 70 degree knows but sometime this one can move to higher latitude maybe go to 40 or 50 and that's called
Jin-Yi Yu: That's one phase of the oscillation somehow more more almost fell swoop. Okay, so why we care about it. Just remove more sauce or or no so
Jin-Yi Yu: Now let's explain here. See here let's pay attention. This is United States North America is Europe. So in the one phase are essential EO in the positive face.
Jin-Yi Yu: What do we have, we have a very, very strong values and know
Jin-Yi Yu: So we know that in the polar region near polar region, we have a low pressure in this subtropical region above 60 degree, not at about 30 degree knows we have high pressure right Pacific high for example here is also high in Atlantic and this law is Isla know so
Jin-Yi Yu: When we have
Jin-Yi Yu: High Low pressure here.
Jin-Yi Yu: No pressure supposed to rotate in which the Russian clockwise or counterclockwise anyone
Kyle Manley: Counter clockwise or
Jin-Yi Yu: Counterclockwise when
Jin-Yi Yu: Try to say no, no me erasing these stories one
Jin-Yi Yu: Australia.
Jin-Yi Yu: So when you have a low pressure
Jin-Yi Yu: Here is corner rotated counterclockwise, which to me is going to go which way.
Jin-Yi Yu: This way.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right.
Jin-Yi Yu: So try to push the wind from west to east, the same time to the south or our jet stream. We are going to have high pressure
Jin-Yi Yu: High pressure is going to move clockwise. Right. So again, also going to increase the win here. So when we have very strong
Jin-Yi Yu: I said no and very strong
Jin-Yi Yu: Arrows of high. All in all, we have very strong R Us and low and very strong. How are you in high, then our test stream is kind of a very, very strong and that's called positive phase of it as Asian because
Jin-Yi Yu: 360 degree. No matter is in Asia Pacific north of North America or are attending or Europe.
Jin-Yi Yu: The gesture in the Pacific sector gesture in the Atlantic sector posts are very strong. And that's what we have is hosting become very, very, very, very, very, very strong.
Jin-Yi Yu: When we have a very strong jet. For example, then we say this gesturing or suit from cause I'm over at any sector funding United States, although it directly to the Western Europe.
Jin-Yi Yu: Is going to bring all the rainfall in Western Europe in the military and region southeastern part of Europe does not have another winter storm. So we become very shy.
Jin-Yi Yu: In salt in the Caribbean region very wet in
Jin-Yi Yu: Western Europe, but in the outer face when it especially in his negative face, then this low pressure in the origin become very we become all koi higher pressure
Jin-Yi Yu: Right then this gesturing or become weaker become loose last straight call to the Western Europe instead is going to shift more social in shooting from
Jin-Yi Yu: So, also in the United States. When we add the assertion is in the positive face then we see that this gesture is coming from is more in the Canada in the credit region. So only greater region and can Canadian region are very, very cool because
Jin-Yi Yu: To the north of this jet stream we have very, very cold air to the south. We have warm air. So when a test remove knows what for example in these positive phase of
Jin-Yi Yu: It as Asian Mosul United States are in this woman side opposition. But when we have in the act of oscillation negative face.
Jin-Yi Yu: This gesture will more social see in this picture or the United States become blue car become it become very, very cool.
Jin-Yi Yu: And then at the same time, all these gesture is complete, when the song to meet attarian region. So the Western Europe become brain try and meet a terrible agent become very well.
Jin-Yi Yu: So based on quality is quite here. That's why it isolation is a very famous phenomena because affect human being human. I was not only for climate scientists of meteorology to care about because everybody can feel his impact. So we need to remember when it is in his positive phase.
Jin-Yi Yu: Is going to make the United State is going to be have warm climate.
Jin-Yi Yu: So it's gonna. This is gonna affect temperature warm or cold also affect
Jin-Yi Yu: Wet or Dry. Okay, so in order to make your memory, he make it easy to remember this, I suggest you to remember it as Asian is going to affect the temperature
Jin-Yi Yu: In the United States,
Jin-Yi Yu: And it's going to affect European
Jin-Yi Yu: Rainfall
Jin-Yi Yu: So that stuff on this point. That's easy for you to remember this. Okay, so now when we have in the positive face of it assertion. What happened to us temperature is going to be on us.
Jin-Yi Yu: And what
Jin-Yi Yu: Western
Jin-Yi Yu: Europe.
Jin-Yi Yu: And what happened in the negative phase of our Ascension is gonna make us CO, CO us. And so I Western Europe.
Jin-Yi Yu: But at the same time is going to make what with attarian region. Okay. When Western Europe is trying then meet the therapy. Well,
Jin-Yi Yu: When Western Europe is what the military is going to be try. Okay, that's easy for you to remember importance of the RT Aster engine so
Jin-Yi Yu: If you go to Google and you can search. A lot of you type in the US winter severe winter and usually they're the TV or when a station, you can say we are now are in
Jin-Yi Yu: Which you phrase it as an issue if for some reason our winter become very, very cool. Would you call it would guess that's in the positive face or out the isolation or you will test this. We are in the negative face RTS Asia, which one
Jin-Yi Yu: Anyone
Jin-Yi Yu: Up in the negative face so
Jin-Yi Yu: Usually when we are in the negative face of AFI oscillation, the United State here.
Jin-Yi Yu: The call the gesturing is moving very much south wall.
Jin-Yi Yu: So allow all his co to push all the way to very low part of the United States. And that's how we have the cold weather.
Jin-Yi Yu: In this article session can also call in your mom, I already mentioned that. Now, as this is the this concept, this phenomena original is coming from my
Jin-Yi Yu: Dissertation when I talk about the zona for vacillation in the computer model. Okay, so when this phenomena is localized in the North Atlantic region right because
Jin-Yi Yu: When we say at the association, we have thinking about the whole almost 360 degree or this gesture moving South or North simultaneously in the Atlantic sector passivity sector.
Jin-Yi Yu: Asia sector and European sector North American sector, but you only care about the Atlantic sector is North America is a Europe now you can see that the RT isolation is a Tommy mode of winter.
Jin-Yi Yu: clammy beer appeared in the North Atlantic region, ranging from send saw Central North America to Europe.
Jin-Yi Yu: This North
Jin-Yi Yu: Atlantic Station NAO
Jin-Yi Yu: Is a larger scale seesaw in Otter must be a mass between subtropical high because high pressure low pressure is related to how much
Jin-Yi Yu: Bottom as political mess you have right this one already squad when balls are using an ice then know and
Jin-Yi Yu: Arrow so high a post strong, then we'll go to produce a positive face of the EO which was when the gesturing more tightly
Jin-Yi Yu: looping around the earth at a higher altitude Britain around four to Western Europe, make the meter Taryn region, try right and then the next phase or LA or become the IC. So these are telling you that
Jin-Yi Yu: AN A OR is equal to look regional
Jin-Yi Yu: Refraction
Jin-Yi Yu: Of the Arctic oscillation over the North Atlantic region. OK, now let's continue. So this is positive phase Western Europe dry military were negative face. See this gesture will move more social here.
Jin-Yi Yu: And is going to make it worse than you were Western Europe. Try me. The terrain work. Okay.
Jin-Yi Yu: And what's the reason we produce these phenomena.
Jin-Yi Yu: So these are our station or North Atlantic
Jin-Yi Yu: Oxidation is considered a natural variability of atmosphere so atmosphere produce these phenomena by cell. So that's why it's very difficult to predict. And the reason it must be pretty produce these phenomena is what I described here.
Jin-Yi Yu: Because jet stream is going to interact with the winter storm forcing at means winter stop.
Jin-Yi Yu: And they interact with each other, interact with each other. As a result, but gesturing something moon also some time or south. Oh, OK. That's all you need to remember
Jin-Yi Yu: About
Jin-Yi Yu: It as Asian so see very easily to sing it Artie oscillation localized in our current or in Atlantic is called North Atlantic Station, what will be the
Jin-Yi Yu: Art, the association phenomena know Christ in North Pacific, what will be Dr. Mina Mina Mina call
Jin-Yi Yu: Now phenomena will be called knows Pacific constellation. Okay. So post not authentic post North Pacific oscillation not attending as he is referring the gesturing in
Jin-Yi Yu: North Pacific and testing over the North Atlantic move north or south or north or south. Right. And whenever adjustment in the whole
Jin-Yi Yu: Latino region more north or south, what is called RT ascension. So I repeat these many time here. I just want you to simplify the host view.
Jin-Yi Yu: It as a nation is the same as North Atlantic as a nation and is the same similar instance is a similar to the last person offensive. They already to test removing loss was also ok now let's continue to go to be the other phenomena.
Jin-Yi Yu: To
Jin-Yi Yu: Restart a program just many
Jin-Yi Yu: anyone has questions.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, let me go back to the PowerPoint.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, now let's move on to the second
Jin-Yi Yu: Jaime phenomena in the extra tropical paddle atmosphere that's called PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA pattern. So now let's first
Jin-Yi Yu: Recognize what is these passivity laws America pattern is very often just referred to as a p AMP. A and why it is important.
Jin-Yi Yu: So he can see the piano means that this North America that he has 12345 center. Okay. That's why you need to remember. But if you don't remember, that's fine. But if you are in the physical climate research.
Jin-Yi Yu: Area, when we talk about piano you to try to encourage yourself to remember Choir is active center is first active center is in the nearly equatorial region right when we have p AMP a in a positive face and we have high pressure over this equatorial Nami Nami
Jin-Yi Yu: Nami reset hosting us focus on this path center.
Jin-Yi Yu: So basically you have for center.
Jin-Yi Yu: A plda expensive awake propagation a piece circle.
Jin-Yi Yu: And and we were provoked a he produced on his past produce positive, negative, positive, negative, right. So, we will draw the wave issue to seminaries positive
Jin-Yi Yu: Negative, positive and then negative. So a big circle. So all these are the emotion when you propagate to harass you you need to return to load it. And that's why we have this pattern.
Jin-Yi Yu: And is center is for center one center is here you have high pressure to the positive face.
Jin-Yi Yu: Your high price over how I you have low pressure over our use an island and you have a high pressure. Okay, sitting over the Canada and
Jin-Yi Yu: Can ask area and you have low pressure over the Florida region and this is a PMA
Jin-Yi Yu: So why we care about is phenomenal. Because, for example, when we are in the positive phase of P AMP a look at this. This is high pressure low pressure, no pressure means it is moving, which direction counterclockwise direction. Right.
Jin-Yi Yu: Counterclockwise means only is going to move this way in a high pressure school moving clockwise direction again is going to move
Jin-Yi Yu: This way.
Jin-Yi Yu: So this P AMP a pattern deal to this high pressure in how I know pricing is no is kind of make our gesture, very, very strong in Banbury string straight to where
Jin-Yi Yu: constrict go to where to California. Right. So when we are in the positive phase of this is a positive phase of TNA
Jin-Yi Yu: Or at least gonna make potential very, very strong shooting directly to where to California and Mexico. And that's going to print a lot of room for to us because in a normal condition to reinforce you go here.
Jin-Yi Yu: The gestures, you go to Seattle Pacific Northwest. That's what that area has room for a day abs on by offering all the time.
Jin-Yi Yu: And when we have this way champion PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA pattern is going to push the
Jin-Yi Yu: Jet Stream in rainfall to California. And that's why every time when we see a positive phase of PMA then California Southern California is going to have more room for
Jin-Yi Yu: And then if we are in a negative face the other side of plda in what is the negative face next phase means instead of high, we're going to have low instead of low, you're going to high so low pressure is going to go counterclockwise. Right, so go this way.
Jin-Yi Yu: And high pressure is going to go clockwise. This way. So this next phase of time if we nominate is try to slow down a jet bigger gesture is coming from.
Jin-Yi Yu: West to East but now these tools center is going to push the when to go from east to west, and that's why we've got to stop all this testing coming to
Jin-Yi Yu: California is that we're going to push the gesture more close to Canada or even produce a high price. These high pressure here is going to split the gesture one go to
Jin-Yi Yu: Alaska Wankel to more close to Pacific Northwest. So where we are in the negative phase of TNA we are California has Korean drop. So who can quite when can this piano
Jin-Yi Yu: Positive or negative happen the most important way to create this wave publication in the atmosphere is by El Nino. So that's where this shading indicates
Jin-Yi Yu: This. That means that when we have a El Nino phenomena produce a warm water in equatorial Pacific. Then we are going to excite these way. Then we are going to produce a positive
Jin-Yi Yu: P AMP a with a positive peer the gesture is going to be strengthened.
Jin-Yi Yu: By this, how are you. Hi, an audition, though, it's gonna rain. Rain for the California. So the reason California particular Southern California, Colorado rainfall
Jin-Yi Yu: During the El Nino year is because they only know excite this PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA pattern is positive effect when we have La Nina here happening, then we are going to have the negative face of fear.
Jin-Yi Yu: next phase of PMA then we are going to
Jin-Yi Yu: Brock the windows. The windows don't come into California and California is gonna have to
Jin-Yi Yu: Drop condition it. Now let's move on to the weather phenomena in a tropical region, the atmospheric of variation in the tropical region we call the empty. Oh, this is called Madden Julian house nation because these two scientists in a National Center for Atmospheric Research at the
Jin-Yi Yu: Boulder, Colorado, they discovered is phenomenal. In 1970 something but at that time is important, was his importance, the importance of his phenomena was not well recognized until
Jin-Yi Yu: Data. So basically this is deep compassion phenomena. So this is a cross section of this Madden Julian Assange. First, you need to remember this operate.
Jin-Yi Yu: They happen at 70 to 90 days time scale. So what is this phenomena.
Jin-Yi Yu: This phenomena. If you describe a structure is has a very strong conviction happening somewhere in the tropical
Jin-Yi Yu: Region. If it is North America, South America, Australia, and then when we have em tail phenomena means somewhere in equatorial region, we have a strong connection. But this Commission only one we are going to see many these scenes around the corner. We only saw one. This is the
Jin-Yi Yu: Important future of this phenomena this deep commercial is only one
Jin-Yi Yu: And then about 180 degrees away from this area you are going to have a
Jin-Yi Yu: Sinking motion. So this is the commercial rising motion in summer 180 degree away. You have a single emotion. So he has a wave number one.
Jin-Yi Yu: Structure. Okay, so this is a first important future of modern Jewish he he produced allow the commercial. So the Eco always shooting this crash shooting all the way to the top of the
Jin-Yi Yu: Stratosphere. Okay. Now, what is a second phenomena relate to this important feature of this phenomena. When you produce these deep commercial here.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right. See here, away from this on the right hand side of this commercial you have a strong wind comes in here.
Jin-Yi Yu: And the RSI has here you have a steady income in your Western income and then you have reversed when I'm a top
Jin-Yi Yu: So you are going to produce a rising motion and income here sinking here in the wind return here rising here. Come here with a. So, this phenomena. Most important is a deep compassion, a company or coupled with a large
Jin-Yi Yu: scale circulation and that's the key interesting phenomena of this modern Julian Association.
Jin-Yi Yu: So here is a picture. So you can see that this graphic card and you can consider it as a commercial the commercial see this phenomena.
Jin-Yi Yu: First happening. It began his life in Indian Ocean an immortal Miranda continent in Indonesia or something and they crossed
Jin-Yi Yu: The Miranda Candyland come to the western Pacific and come to Western personal become the international painter in this deep compassion stop here.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right, because on the eastern side of Pacific Ocean is very cool. So, the Commission, they cannot continue. So this phenomena. Keep on moving east or
Jin-Yi Yu: As what you need to remember and to always move each the war and then this the commercial, you can see is a company with a lot of women coming in comes in comes in comes in.
Jin-Yi Yu: Whatever the Commission is on his right hand side always has history when history when history. Oh, in history when is what, right hand, left hand side has Western Western Western you in West Hollywood West Hollywood. OK. So the more is or who is time now.
Jin-Yi Yu: That's why it is teacher Tarik value nice emmerdale is called app, and then associate Minister so MSL is January past develop in a ritual family sodden Indian Ocean.
Jin-Yi Yu: Issue across Australia to the western Pacific region, the conviction and the reader the corners and priests potential Kendall tied up in about 180 degree away, which are already described here.
Jin-Yi Yu: Or erase that.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, so why is the MFA. Oh, important already described to you right
Jin-Yi Yu: Whenever these nano copper least one
Jin-Yi Yu: Here one is compassion moving into
Jin-Yi Yu: Into Marina continent usual you send away V motion go all the way and to produce rainfall in in Pacific Northwest. When you continue to move here.
Jin-Yi Yu: The rainfall is going to be percent late here room for us to move to Oregon and modal California and that's why these phenomena is very important for us to forecast the rain for
Jin-Yi Yu: Wet or Dry in California. Okay, and what's the reason you put these these phenomena this phenomena is produced by Otter must internal dynamics of the tropical
Jin-Yi Yu: Atmosphere tropical other must be a hat is it is cara, cara authorized by the commercial activity.
Jin-Yi Yu: When you put the deep commercial activity you're going to produce value margin, which I'm not going to describe. And so the tip commercially interact with this way emotion misspeak commercial or keep on moving. He swore during his lifetime.
Jin-Yi Yu: Now let's be quiet. The other must be ocean phenomena, which we call insole right a only announced organization. So here
Jin-Yi Yu: So is El Nino Southern Association. So El Nino is really referring to surface ocean warming phenomena. So this is a phenomena happening in the tropical equatorial region in the eastern Pacific. So you need to know where a only not happening in the
Jin-Yi Yu: Tropical
Jin-Yi Yu: Eastern Tropical
Jin-Yi Yu: Pacific right outside South America region and and what is Sada Sada as he is atmospheric or phenomena. So right over on top of these
Jin-Yi Yu: Ocean warm up and cool down the atmosphere produce a low pressure on on the eastern side of the Pacific Ocean right above these El Nino
Jin-Yi Yu: In near Australia on the western side of the personalization will produce a high pressure, right. So the President got a law and East get higher
Jin-Yi Yu: On the west, aka here. Hi, and it was a low on the east is called a separation between Eastern and Western side it over the Southern Ocean that's white walker.
Jin-Yi Yu: Walker circulation will name Walker circulation was named after him because he discovered this phenomena and he didn't know this phenomena is related to El Nino
Jin-Yi Yu: It is until 1969 the professor at UCLA copia Connors he realized that this ocean phenomena warming in the eastern Pacific
Jin-Yi Yu: And the atmospheric pressure going up and down out of phase Mary's you between both sides of Pacific Southern Association, they are related to each other. That's why he can see the in order to describe these
Jin-Yi Yu: Other must be ocean capturing phenomena we need to combine these two terminology together. Okay, so I want you to first recognize that
Jin-Yi Yu: But now this day when we say, and so on, you know, we just say now ocean temperature warm up is called El Nino ocean temperature cooling down. See this is quarter here.
Jin-Yi Yu: This is Peruvian coast South America. So you can see that ocean temperature warm up right and also interviewed your quota. So this one as you see rather mean here.
Jin-Yi Yu: zeros here. What a zero mean means the temperature at his point is porn is the same as his normal temperature cosmetology
Jin-Yi Yu: When it is warmer than is normal will become record. One is called a normal become called car. So you can see that when El Nino happen. The ocean temperature in the Eastern
Jin-Yi Yu: Tropical Pacific and warm up to what degree see to decrease see three degrees C, or up to five degree, see. Okay, last the order of the warming, you need to remember and accordions happening here. So,
Jin-Yi Yu: The only one that needs to happen is called Mr circulation above this atmosphere. So now that's why he can also they are here at the squad is southern isolation.
Jin-Yi Yu: And this is a checkup economist, he discovered in his 1969 paper he realized what happened to why these tools Institute work together to produce these phenomena. Okay, so
Jin-Yi Yu: That's why. Now we referring to this fiscal mechanism that produced El Nino nanny know we call that mechanism PR converse feedback.
Jin-Yi Yu: Mechanism okay because ocean and atmospheric help each other feedback to each other to amplify the initial variation inside atmosphere or insanity ocean.
Jin-Yi Yu: So yeah, so care copia kindness is the son of Mia Hamm, because we are happy occurrence is the one that disc explaining what produce the winter storm and his son is expressing properties El Nino
Jin-Yi Yu: So now this is their argument why why we have El Nino. So this first in order to understand the only let you first need to recognize that our Pacific Ocean tropic ocean.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right here, Australia, Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean is connect to Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean is yearning for me very, very well. Maybe we'll
Jin-Yi Yu: worry, we will purposely ocean is only warm in the western part. That's why we call this very, very warm temperature ocean temperature gradient 28 which we call in to
Jin-Yi Yu: See fake warm pool, a pool warm water and but in the nearly outside South America.
Jin-Yi Yu: We have a very, very cold temperature here. Okay. And it's very, very cold temperature here.
Jin-Yi Yu: Is call each
Jin-Yi Yu: Each 10 Pacific
Jin-Yi Yu: Coast time
Jin-Yi Yu: While we call it caught on, because this cold temperature has a shape look here.
Jin-Yi Yu: The ship or is called temperature in the eastern Pacific look like humans time here and a tank going out here. That's why calling cold on so in the West is called warm pool.
Jin-Yi Yu: In the east is called cold Pam okay we need to remember this. Now why we have one more or the Walmart on the western side of the Pacific and very cold water on the eastern side because we have Walker circulation.
Jin-Yi Yu: Now, or a arise over them, Indonesia, Marina Condon and then sync.
Jin-Yi Yu: Up hours outside of South America in this band need to return from South America to Australia US East study when
Jin-Yi Yu: The wind is coming from east to west. So when when is moving from east to west what happened here is going to push all the warm water to accumulate and the western boundary of the Pacific. Right. So, as we say ocean structure is like this. We have surface and then we have a sermon crime.
Jin-Yi Yu: And then we have deep ocean here. So I already told you in the caution chapter, it is very difficult to mix the water
Jin-Yi Yu: For for Bridgewater front and then is a summer class to upper summer. Summer kind of more like a prospect. So now when you have when on the surface, this easily when push
Jin-Yi Yu: from east to west, and then in order to have a crypto acceptable to create room to save all this warm water, then the sea surface on the eastern Eastern side has the go higher.
Jin-Yi Yu: And some more crime has go deeper. That's why. Here you can see
Jin-Yi Yu: When we have when self as we go this way in order to keep all the warm water here.
Jin-Yi Yu: You see them are caught up in the summer clinical time. Okay, and what does it mean, some are critical, because all the call quality is underneath the summer crime. So pushing keeping all the warm water here.
Jin-Yi Yu: The summer camp becomes dropping from west to east so near the eastern Pacific. The summer crime.
Jin-Yi Yu: Is very, very close to service. So when we have a mixing in the surface in this area in the cotton region is going to bring very cold water to the surface. So that's why
Jin-Yi Yu: It always produce very warm water and it was very cold water on East. So this is normal condition before we produce El Nino Nina. We always have sprinkle surface ocean and we outside
Jin-Yi Yu: So Peruvian coast and what is again why this area so cool because we have cold water and oil.
Jin-Yi Yu: In a coastal region bring clean water to the surface. So what does up, which means Apple is going to put in a lot of nutrients.
Jin-Yi Yu: From the deep ocean.
Jin-Yi Yu: To the service outside South American coast to hire up an app that you have learned nutrient in the south and in the
Jin-Yi Yu: In the coastal region, a lot of fish is going to go to this area, and that's why probing and fishermen always go to this region to to catch fish and then
Jin-Yi Yu: Every two to four years or to seven years they notice that they come to this cold water region to catch fish and then there's no fish why there's no fish because ocean water become very well, that's why. And this always happen here that December.
Jin-Yi Yu: Of the year. That's why they call this phenomena El Nino right and so El Nino, meaning that the ocean water become very warm
Jin-Yi Yu: Instead of keeping on what on the western side or passivity near Australia. We're going to bring on water back
Jin-Yi Yu: They are going to drink warm water back to South American coast right here. How can we win a warm water back. We need to make sure that when is not going from East
Jin-Yi Yu: To West because when it's called nice way, we will keep on keeping auto warm water and West in order to bring the alma mater back to the east, the wind has to reverse to become westerly winds
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, how can we make the wind become Wednesday we need to reverse this Walker circulation instead arising in us in the merchant account and then in sinking outside
Jin-Yi Yu: South America, we may reverse it. We make the
Jin-Yi Yu: Air instead arising in in Indonesia, we make the air going down in Indonesia during the El Nino ears.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, so that's why during an El Nino is South East Asia, Thailand, Australia, Singapore, they produce drop because or a push down
Jin-Yi Yu: So, air, water cannot go up a producer info in Indonesia Southeast Asia become very, very dry and then cause wildfire in Australia in Singapore in in Thailand, and that's the typical response during El Nino so
Jin-Yi Yu: And then when you have pushed to the Walmart or here.
Jin-Yi Yu: Then the circulation is called corrupt when security collapse become moving from question. We it's going to bring even more on water to the east only have even more warm water to ease the
Jin-Yi Yu: Walker security is going to collect even more workers. Okay. Correct. Even more the surface was the
Jin-Yi Yu: Wind is going to be even stronger so through this process be an orca circulation ocean help each other to make this El Nino phenomena become larger and larger. That's why we call this
Jin-Yi Yu: Interaction between occur must be an ocean of positive feedback process. And this process is called be honest feedback.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay and this one tell you that if we look at the ocean temperature in the near in nearly Central Pacific in this region Australia is here somewhere around
Jin-Yi Yu: Not far away from the South American he will take the ocean temperature here as value a new product every now on your El Nino
Jin-Yi Yu: The temperature become more more more more MORE IN RETURN maxima and then and, you know, time next year and then we do that for every El Nino event and we price on this product and very surprising. We notice that
Jin-Yi Yu: All Mosul, almost all El Nino event that began to cross become warmer than zero, then a commonality somewhere in this time, which is the March, April, May you think
Jin-Yi Yu: And then this early in our continued development during the June, July, August in the summertime in in the September, October and very interesting or El Nino phenomena, they've reached the maximum a woman.
Jin-Yi Yu: In the ocean temperature here somewhere in December, January, February, and when it comes to a next year that much at home in the springtime these phenomena time so El Nino
Jin-Yi Yu: Learning and they happen every two to four or seven years. But when it happened the last only one years. The last one year.
Jin-Yi Yu: And they always lose the pig, pig intensity during wintertime. That's why impact California rain for the most because winter is our renewal season so when it reached the intensity ocean become very, very warm in the Pacific Ocean. Right.
Jin-Yi Yu: Very, very warm here and it's going to produce O
Jin-Yi Yu: P AMP a pattern perceiving North America pattern.
Jin-Yi Yu: P an A, and it's going to affect the test for him to California. And that's why California reinforce the window and not hot also is the time El Nino has the strongest
Jin-Yi Yu: Intensity so he has a very strong impact in California room for because his peak intensity happened in the same time, we have the room for season. Okay, I'm going to explain these phenomena. I didn't be more
Jin-Yi Yu: Next week, next Tuesday, and I'm going to explain pencil explain why dancing. Why a on enough phenomena only happen in the Pacific because based on what I just say so far the only real phenomena happen you only in order to produce El Nino, you need to have a
Jin-Yi Yu: Walker situation and you need to have
Jin-Yi Yu: Ocean and workers occasion also exists in Atlantic also exist in Indian Ocean. I already mentioned, there are three branch or walkers occasion, then why
Jin-Yi Yu: Am I mean the only happen in the Pacific. So the, the answer is conducive to to say to tell you that only Pacific Ocean is big enough to produce the El Nino out this quiet. Up next Tuesday and ok I'll stop here.
Jin-Yi Yu: And I'll send you a homework. This is last homework homework. Number five by email, and three simple question for you to answer. And you'll be till next Thursday. And next we will discuss how we are going to Tony final exam. So anybody has any question.
Ved Bhoot: Yeah. So how is El Nino expected to change down the line. Like will it be affected a bit with increasing warming scenarios or
Jin-Yi Yu: Yeah, many, many different argument, one argument.
Jin-Yi Yu: Is proposed by my research group and basically El Nino is become his location has changed. So everything. I thought you is it only happened outside
Jin-Yi Yu: Peruvian coast. Right. But if you look at the audience, you know, even we observed in the 21st century. They are no longer
Jin-Yi Yu: In these opprobrium coast there now El Nino is moving to the International Day night. And that's why I created to terminology. So now these days because he meeting, you'll hear people
Jin-Yi Yu: Call in on you know eastern Pacific on you know that's the traditional you know happening is the Caribbean coast. If people also call there's another kind of, you know, call center persona.
Jin-Yi Yu: And I created to terminology. So CP El Nino is discover by our E SS department. Okay, so it only knows where you need to the University of California.
Jin-Yi Yu: As I say, I only know was explained by Jacob beer connoisseur in at UCLA and now in the 21st century with discover new tab on, you know, call center person, you know, was discovered by macro. It is also a product of our
Jin-Yi Yu: UC system. I'll say a little bit more on next Tuesday. And so basically some I argue the El Nino is going to change the location after global warming.
Jin-Yi Yu: But is another group of scientists from Australia. They believe that the global warming is going to make a, you know, become stronger and stronger, which I don't agree but
Jin-Yi Yu: That's not a key issue, but also to T men line of argument that relate to global warming impact on you know any other question.
Jin-Yi Yu: No. Okay, then I'll stop here. I'll see you on Tuesday. And I'll send you the homework.
Jin-Yi Yu: By the end of the day. Okay, bye everybody.