Jin-Yi Yu: In this talk, we're going to show that the transition come crash the amino is different from the transition capacity in Medina and we'll explain what's the reason for this defense and
Jin-Yi Yu: How it may change in the future. So my courses so away from also from UCLA.
Jin-Yi Yu: So here the transition complexity. We talk about is referring to the fact that they are three event to event transmission pattern that can be observed.
Jin-Yi Yu: So the first pattern is cyclic so tradition pattern, which is that they only know is followed by her La Nina. Nina is followed by El Nino
Jin-Yi Yu: A second tradition pattern is the episodic television, which are now Nina. Nina is preceding the previous year by a mutual condition.
Jin-Yi Yu: And so pattern is the multi year and so transition where Nino is followed by another El Nino or Latina followed by another plan Nina.
Jin-Yi Yu: And we noticed that during the period in 1948 to 2016 the observed that El Nino shows a tradition capacity is completely opposite family tradition capacity.
Jin-Yi Yu: In the observed Latina event. So for the El Nino, we notice that most of you already know is showing episodic and psychotic ends alternation and released by this a multi years
Jin-Yi Yu: Transmission pattern, but for La Nina, we notice that multi year tradition pattern cannot to be the most dominant pattern for the transition and then followed by psychotic, and then this party's episodic so these opposite
Jin-Yi Yu: Compress the between the air and Ilan now Nina, tell us a very interesting phenomena that is Elena is dominant most part is multi year transition pattern.
Jin-Yi Yu: But we see a lot of multi year plan in the event, but very few multi years a only no event. So it becomes interesting to find out why the nature of the present day climate produce such a El Nino nanny in a cemetery.
Jin-Yi Yu: And we already find out in the inner Pusan 18 study that which transmission pattern should occur depends on how the El Nino nanny.
Jin-Yi Yu: Is triggered if knows. So even is triggered by the tropical Pacific and similar kind of music, such as those described by the charge is charge of the data theory, then we find out that the arrow, not even
Jin-Yi Yu: Triggered by such mechanism tend to be proceed in the previous year by a La Nina and aligning are triggered by these topics such as tropical
Jin-Yi Yu: Perceived process tend to be preceded by a Nino Southern edge. These are tropical perceive answer mechanism can put this iconic so tradition El Nino, followed by La Nina. Nina para para el nino and so these tropical I'm saying mechanism is not very useful to
Jin-Yi Yu: The multi year multi year event trigger by this subtropical semicolon, such as those described by the season of winter mechanism.
Jin-Yi Yu: Or the Pacific married the animal will notice that last event tend to have a certain percent stitch them showing your multi you know multi year now. Nina. So I think they explain in detail how the speaker.
Jin-Yi Yu: Information. Tell us, but basically this fieger tell us that a man HUNDRED PERCENT OF LAWS El Nino, or even how many are very show you multi years
Jin-Yi Yu: Evolution. So here, for El Nino, we noticed that about 20 to 30% of these subtropical onset El Nino show you multi year so
Jin-Yi Yu: And for this among 40 to 50% of his subtropical unsaid lamanna show in a multi year running
Jin-Yi Yu: So this result, tell us that by focusing focusing on this subtropical onset mechanism along we are able to explain financial produce more more to learn. You know, the multi year El Nino
Jin-Yi Yu: So let's now focus on what is this subtropical unsaid mechanism and how he can activate alternative
Jin-Yi Yu: So to find out the subtropical answer mechanism is structure, we use the multi variable your
Jin-Yi Yu: Emphasis a prideful SST and when. And this is the pattern we find out. So this pattern basic tell us that when we have 12 in a normal in the north eastern Pacific region.
Jin-Yi Yu: In this particular phase. This trailer normally happen too weak.
Jin-Yi Yu: To be the winner normally cannot happen to be in the opposite direction from the Penguin, Penguin. So this will anomaly where we can always be in the north eastern Pacific or reduce the survey. He frocks
Jin-Yi Yu: Cooling and sort of a warm up, sea surface temperature right outside the North American region.
Jin-Yi Yu: And the initial warming will continue exciting new compassion to southern end and there's no conversion were again a company by new trail. When a nominee, which will we cannot try win again.
Jin-Yi Yu: And then will produce a new woman or normally to the south of this original warming so soon is when evaporation SSD feedback be
Jin-Yi Yu: Well, a nominee turnout parties trail and outside North America region will continue spray Southwest one input equatorial region. And last, how these subtropical Pacific process can trigger El Nino or similarly can trigger La Nina.