Jin-Yi Yu: In this talk, I'm going to show that the transition complexity in El Nino is different. Probably tarnishing compress the Latina, and we'll explain the reason for this difference and how you may change in the future, my costs. So if I'm also from UC Irvine.
Jin-Yi Yu: So the transition complexity, we, we talk about here is refer into the fact that we have three event to event transmission pattern that can be observed.
Jin-Yi Yu: So the first pattern is cyclic transmission pattern where an A on email is followed by a La Nina or loud enough ROI El Nino and a second pattern is the episodic tradition pattern where they are. Nina. Nina. Nina is proceed in the previous year in
Jin-Yi Yu: Neutral condition is so Pathan is a multi year transmission pattern where an El Nino is followed by another El Nino or La Nina is followed by another now Nina.
Jin-Yi Yu: So even look at the the observation, the El Nino event in observation histamine a mostly by the episodic television pattern para para second
Jin-Yi Yu: Transmission pattern and the least by this mode here transition path and very interestingly, we see a completely reverse
Jin-Yi Yu: Order of is our tradition capacity can be observed in the 40 La Nina event. So during this 1948 to 2016 period.
Jin-Yi Yu: Most of learning and even is dominated by a multi years Chinese yuan path and 42% and then followed by SEC clinic and episodic Chinese your path is the least. So we have completely reverse order of this tradition.
Jin-Yi Yu: Complexity between El Nino and La Nina and more interesting that he will notice that the they are more multi year Amina event then multi
Jin-Yi Yu: Ears El Nino events. So we become interesting in finding our first. The reason for this and you know now Nina a symmetry.
Jin-Yi Yu: So you're not previous studying Posada at we already noticed that these three transmission pattern which one can occur is depends on how the El Nino event.
Jin-Yi Yu: Is triggered. If there are no no no. I mean, I even is triggered by a tropical Pacific on same mechanism such as those disquiet piety charge is charged Pasadena theory.
Jin-Yi Yu: Then we notice that the earning or triggered by these tropical Pacific process tend to be preceded by a la Mina and and I even triggered by these tropical passivity.
Jin-Yi Yu: Mechanism tend to be perceived by Nino sorry tropical passive. I'm saying mechanism.
Jin-Yi Yu: Tend to produce most of the cyclic and so transition make a nofollow by Latina than enough power by El Nino. So this mechanism is not a key mechanism to explain the multi years El Nino multi La Nina.
Jin-Yi Yu: And instead will notice that in our study that is subtropical perceive, I'm saying mechanism can produce both multi year El Nino in multi year plan Nina. Now, interestingly enough.
Jin-Yi Yu: Among this here is hundred percent of these El Nino event that was triggered by the subtropical perceive answer mechanism among those events about 20 to 30% of them.
Jin-Yi Yu: Will show more El Nino and but among all these Donna even darker Treacle by on set by the subtropical Pacific process, we noticed that 40 or 50% of them will showing this multi years
Jin-Yi Yu: Running a pattern. So these different already tell and study subtropical answer mechanism along
Jin-Yi Yu: Tend to produce more multi year learning and then multi year El Nino
Jin-Yi Yu: So you want to explain why the nature in the present day climate, we see more naughty and running on a multi year and you know we should focus on understanding this subtropical Pacific and send mechanism so
Jin-Yi Yu: We should we use a multi variable your app NSA master to find out how this hope this subtropical is a mechanism look like
Jin-Yi Yu: So this pattern, tell us that the subtropical unsaid mechanism is categorized by a train. When I normally over the North Eastern Pacific region.
Jin-Yi Yu: So when we have to an anomaly in this particular phase of this mechanism you will weaken the background train when and we so we can pick one. When we're going to
Jin-Yi Yu: Get a weaker wind speed. And last, the surface, he he for us. So induced this when a normal induced warming right outside the North American coast in this north eastern Pacific region.
Jin-Yi Yu: And we understand that this initial warming will continue exciting new connection.
Jin-Yi Yu: To the southern end of his SST anomaly and this new convention center again is going to be accompanied by new trailer and I know money and it's not true. When I normally it's going to again we can
Jin-Yi Yu: Be will be on this Sodom end of this original SST anime. And so through this when evaporation SST feedback. The initial warming outside North America.
Jin-Yi Yu: Can be continue expand Southwest walk into the equatorial perceiving to produce. And so, and that's why this subtropical process is to consider an unsaid mechanism for answer so it's
Jin-Yi Yu: How description so far emphasize that the key ingredient to activate or turn on these subtropical
Jin-Yi Yu: Pacific I'm same mechanism is we need to have a tray with a nominee. So now let's focus on understanding how to turn on these travel in a nominee to produce these travel. Now normally to Konami's subtropical I'm cemeteries and so he
Jin-Yi Yu: Suggested S3 way to turn on these to produce a trailing and omega and to turn on this mechanism. The first way is the well known that is we is is well known that the
Jin-Yi Yu: These travel. Now normally can be turned on by atmospheric disturbance in the subtropical region read it.
Jin-Yi Yu: To the north personalization. So most of positive association is described described the other face. You never pressure variation between our new symbol.
Jin-Yi Yu: And subtropical high. So in this particular phase of the NPR, we have negative side of a pressure normally novel produce a psychological circulation which you will produce
Jin-Yi Yu: Trail will produce an anomaly that we can try win and then we will produce the warm water coming down to the equator produce our own you know seminary, we can have positive I normally here see their blood pressure, no money.
Jin-Yi Yu: And produce a strengthened trail when to put us a quote co author calling down to the equatorial region to produce that Nina. So by these personas process. The arrow Nina tenant body subtropical I'm same mechanism is proceed in a previous year by a neutral condition because
Jin-Yi Yu: It is really to know specifically he had nothing to do is El Nino or not enough. So this first mechanism allow a subtropical is a mechanism to produce episodic and we'll transition
Jin-Yi Yu: And he, is he a pattern also care or studies trailing or normal in the north eastern Pacific region may be related to this blue collar.
Jin-Yi Yu: The collar normally in the eastern Pacific hold on region. So what happened is that if you have a call anomaly here if that's running a country is this Daniel condition came in pills.
Jin-Yi Yu: Anomalous calling this or no one is calling shoe excited to high response and
Jin-Yi Yu: It's not worse than corner, you should have a raspy response in this raspy response can also produce the weekend, Trey when and to conduct a positive face Poppy subtropical I'm semi pennies.
Jin-Yi Yu: In the next year is warm water coming down to the equator produce El Nino. So, so the second process.
Jin-Yi Yu: Alam na na can can have positive subtropical I'm semi Canada to produce an El Nino in the following year. So not become down in our follow up and, you know, Nina. Nina. So this process will produce second ends or transition
Jin-Yi Yu: And this path and also tell us that we may have a warming or cooling in this Central Pacific region that can also excited to try response.
Jin-Yi Yu: And but this scale response is occurring in the background was the winner. Normally, so he's guilty respond will produce a win or normally that plus B right immediately to the north.
Jin-Yi Yu: Of this woman cooling and now we're also produced a winner no money. So in this case, if we have all my not a or Nina. Here you will produce
Jin-Yi Yu: This killed her response producer will country when an hour activate Konami's positive face or subtropical answer mechanism and it's warm water will come down in the second year.
Jin-Yi Yu: Produce El Nino, so I will allow El Nino in this location to give rise to another El Nino in the second year.
Jin-Yi Yu: And seminary. If you're not, you're not here. You're not negative face or subtropical answer mechanism to produce another Amina in the second year.
Jin-Yi Yu: So this summer can isn't or so process or allow the subtropical I'm cemeteries and to produce a multi year so tradition. So at least three mechanism.
Jin-Yi Yu: The first one produce episodes so chime in the second one produce cycling so TV, etc. One produce more the insole transition. That's why the subtropical answer mechanism is such a powerful mechanism to
Jin-Yi Yu: Produce the transition capacity. So since we are interesting and multi year and so to initiate not focus on this thermal Kenny's are talking about his woman coding in the Central Pacific region.
Jin-Yi Yu: So, as we say that in order to allow this warming to come on this positive subtropical I'm Simon can isn't to grab this warm water coming down to produce
Jin-Yi Yu: Warming in a second year or cooling here produce negative cooling and coming down in Australia. The key thing is we need to
Jin-Yi Yu: Allow this warming and cooling in this Central Pacific region to excite killed high response. But now the question is the nature only set for favor to produce multi year