Jin-Yi Yu: So you news talk, I'm going to show that the transition complexity in El Nino is different from the TV compress the in La Nina.
Jin-Yi Yu: And we'll explain the reason for this difference and how they may change in the future. My casa, su if I'm also from UC Irvine.
Jin-Yi Yu: So here are the transition complexity. We talk about is referring to the fact that they are three event to event evolution pattern that we can observe
Jin-Yi Yu: The first pattern is a second transition pattern where an El Nino is followed by La Nina or Latinas, followed by an Arduino.
Jin-Yi Yu: The second path and is called episodic television pattern where the El Nino or now Nina is proceed in the previous year by a neutral condition.
Jin-Yi Yu: In a search donation pattern is called a multi year transition problem with El Nino is followed by another El Nino or La Nina is followed by another Nina.
Jin-Yi Yu: And we give them the El Nino and planning an event observed during 1948 to 2016 we notice that the transition complexity in El Nino is completely opposite
Jin-Yi Yu: From the transition compressed in La Nina in the El Nino, we noticed that most of the opposite of El Nino is dominant.
Jin-Yi Yu: The parties episodic and psychotic transmission pattern. And there's only a small percentage of the El Nino even showing this multi year
Jin-Yi Yu: Solution pattern. However, for the line and I even we see that the mass of these days, large, the largest percentage of the solution is the multi year transition
Jin-Yi Yu: We have 42% of those even showing the multi year transition event and this episodic event which dominate the El Nino pattern is only become the smallest percentage of the event show is such a transmission pattern.
Jin-Yi Yu: And most interesting is that we notice that the multi El Nino is the key and most important transmission pattern for La Nina.
Jin-Yi Yu: But such a multi year transition pattern become the smallest percentage for El Nino, so it is as they are more multi year 19 or even their multi El Nino event in the real world. So you try to find out what's the reason for this El Nino nanny, not a symmetric
Jin-Yi Yu: So, you know, previous study in 2018 we already noticed that which tradition path and showing up is controlled by how the answer event trigger or how what kind of answer mechanism. It was produced and if the
Jin-Yi Yu: Event is produced or triggered by this truck capacity answer process, such as those described by the charge discharge oscillator theory we notice that this those El Nino
Jin-Yi Yu: Event tend to be perceived by La Nina in the previous year. And those even concept by the tropical process if it is done enough, he was PC previous year by El Nino
Jin-Yi Yu: So the tropical Pacific. I'm saying mechanism tend to produce mostly the cyclic so termination to make El Nino, followed by La Nina. Nina photo by El Nino
Jin-Yi Yu: And but women is that if the answer event is proceed this trigger or upset by this subtropical Pacific mechanism. Then there's a large percentage
Jin-Yi Yu: Not change that this El Nino can be perceived by another El Nino to become multi year ends El Nino and now Nina can be perceived by another Latina to become multi years La Nina.
Jin-Yi Yu: So I did. I explain the detail this figure, but basically what these to figure, try to tell you is that
Jin-Yi Yu: A mommy hundred percent of El Nino event now was trigger or unsafe body subtropical Pacific process, we noticed that about 20 or 30% or lows in on you know event, we're showing this multi years evolution partner.
Jin-Yi Yu: And for the hundred percent of this planning an event that was produced by a subtropical Pacific process we find out that up.
Jin-Yi Yu: About 40 or 50% of them were showing the multi years now. Nina pattern. So these results are stuck.
Jin-Yi Yu: These subtropical passive. I'm saying mechanism long is able to express our produce more and more de La Nina then multi year
Jin-Yi Yu: El Nino. So you really want to find out flying in the real war we have more Marty and I mean on a multi year, you know, we should focus on
Jin-Yi Yu: This subtropical same mechanism. So let's focus on this subtropical Pacific and say mechanism. So this mckinney's. This is a mechanism can be described by can be extract or identified by applying this multi variable.
Jin-Yi Yu: Analysis see some temperature color. And when I normally. So this poverty showing here. So this cancer mechanism basically is related to a tray. When I normally
Jin-Yi Yu: House in the north eastern Pacific region. So what happened is that when we have is triggering a nominee in this region. So, for example, in this positive one phase.
Jin-Yi Yu: Then we have this window normally try to we kind of train with outside North American coast.
Jin-Yi Yu: Region and this reduced trailer is going to reduce overhead rocks and it's going to warm up, sea surface temperature right outside North American coast.
Jin-Yi Yu: And that initial warning is going to continue to accept the Commission is seldom an anomaly and this new convention center is going again associated with a new trailer and anomaly to the southwestern corner and source and this new trailer is going to again reduced trade.
Jin-Yi Yu: Winds be reduced over here for us to generate new warm a nominee center so so this when evaporation SSD feedback. The International warming also North American coast.
Jin-Yi Yu: Can be extended Southwest who are continuing into equator and to onset of trigger an
Jin-Yi Yu: Event seminary. If we go to the next phase is going to produce cooling and a similar process economy produce chicory alumni event. So basically,
Jin-Yi Yu: We just described, tell us that are most important ingredient for this subtropical passive. I'm saying McKinney, and is we need to have a trade when normally. So let's try to focus on understanding how those children are normally couple deals. So in the past.
Jin-Yi Yu: Most of the literature, consider this the traveling or normally is associated with the atmospheric or disturbance
Jin-Yi Yu: Mostly particularly Italy, so called nonspecific oscillation, which is describe the other face relationship between our use and oh and a subtropical high
Jin-Yi Yu: So in this example, in this particular phase of the not pursue our situation we produce the negative syllable pressure. Normally, and this and psychotic or normally shoe producer when
Jin-Yi Yu: Anomaly that tried to weaken the tray when and after we kind of try when they will activate Konami subtropical answer mechanism warm SST or show up and then in the following season. We're going to produce
Jin-Yi Yu: A Amina. Oh, and then you can negative phase or produce Danny now. So in this process. The Na, na, na Nina is
Jin-Yi Yu: Produced in the previous year by nos personnel sedation oxidation in atmosphere so it does not require to have a Nina. Nina. So we have a mental condition in the previous year. And then Konami sub topic is a mechanism for us. So event.
Jin-Yi Yu: Hi to watching a movie in the course.