Jin-Yi Yu: Start today's lecture by first.
Jin-Yi Yu: talk a little bit about the reason.
Jin-Yi Yu: Why does that happen in Texas, I put in everybody know this event, the funnel news and, basically, this is a very good example of recording the.
Jin-Yi Yu: next one.
Jin-Yi Yu: Arctic temperatures and rolling blackouts hammering Texas, as the country sees record lows throughout the South and plain states.
Jin-Yi Yu: More than 3 million homes and businesses, without power and heat, including more than 1 million residents in the Houston area.
Jin-Yi Yu: city official slamming the electric reliability Council of Texas, the private company that runs about 90% of Texas is electric grid we've been hit hard by nature, this week.
Jin-Yi Yu: But we can't deny that some of this is a man made disaster as well.
Jin-Yi Yu: And the 5 million residents of this county and really this region in the state will deserve answers from are caught in the state once this is over.
Jin-Yi Yu: are called seals saying the company is dealing with more outages because of frozen wind turbines and limited natural gas supplies, I think what has happened here is.
Jin-Yi Yu: A response that kept the grid from collapsing that kept us from going into a blackout condition and certainly.
Jin-Yi Yu: We need to look at what has happened here once we get everybody back online, which is the number one priority Texas governor Greg abbott placing the blame squarely on earth.
Jin-Yi Yu: and has called for a review of the electricity system in the state the power generators froze up in their equipment.
Jin-Yi Yu: was incapable of generating power and then on top of that, that the natural gas that flows into those power generators that has frozen up also.
Jin-Yi Yu: What urquhart should have been able to do is to have backup systems in place and provided zero explanation why they do not have backup systems in place.
Jin-Yi Yu: The state's water supply is now in jeopardy in galveston Texas, the water supply is critically low.
Jin-Yi Yu: And did Houston the mayor warning its residents to conserve water i'm doing lover analyse and and course on it right now in Dallas Texas.
Jin-Yi Yu: And this is the situation in Texas, it is so rare so abnormal to see Texas covered in snow and At first it was exciting for a lot of Texas, this is something that had not happened.
Jin-Yi Yu: In years like this doing this picking up some of this snow was not possible in many years here in Texas it's a lot of snow is cold it's been.
Jin-Yi Yu: Really cold over the last couple of days, but the problem was that it was not just fun and games, it was fun in the beginning, but once it becomes.
Jin-Yi Yu: One day, then two days and three days without any power without any water for some without any heat that's when things got really complicated and that's one Texas.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, so basically this video just tell you that all these new say something, the first thing you.
Jin-Yi Yu: Say one particular important weather condition that caused this problem that is super cool very, very cold course temperature that has not been.
Jin-Yi Yu: experienced in Texas, for many, many actually if you watch the middle some claim that there was there was this was the first time that.
Jin-Yi Yu: Texas ever Castle cope in 10s of thousands of years and this event actually happened in picking up from February 14 on Sunday and that's pretty much the first one Austin.
Jin-Yi Yu: Texas area, and then the what the situation was and was comfortable for me continue so sometime around February 17, this is another the second windows don't arrive in this Texas area, so this episode happening in Texas, the reason is so calling cost so much problem is because of two.
Jin-Yi Yu: consecutive back to back when justin and i'm going to show you in the next few slides try to tell you actually these two.
Jin-Yi Yu: Back to back when the stone that he picks us area is actually what we call the Gulf coast cycle, because the event actually happening, the low pressure is going to put on a machine, I can.
Jin-Yi Yu: Let me put the pen to the.
Jin-Yi Yu: test.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay.
Jin-Yi Yu: See.
Jin-Yi Yu: That is called psycho and then that's interesting.
Jin-Yi Yu: To see the next.
Jin-Yi Yu: Video, which is the meteorologists during this weather emphasis, you can see that this come closer can just go in there, following this Mississippi Ohio.
Jin-Yi Yu: river valley and go to North East and then they wake up this is happening on Sunday.
Jin-Yi Yu: February 14 and then you see there's another cycle arriving in the west coast in the cycle continues come through passing the Colorado region and then this circle actually come here to develop in a second Gulf coast cycle.
Jin-Yi Yu: And Mr concoct course I can also move across Indian area code to the north eastern part of the United States and that's why.
Jin-Yi Yu: This is a very interesting example that match this in the past, so we say, of course, I can can go to either follow in then we'll follow the coastal area.
Jin-Yi Yu: And when I when I follow indiana follow a coastal area depends on the upper level.
Jin-Yi Yu: flow pattern and then this is very interesting that this cocoa cycle, we are we, we can reset three apples this cold call cycle goes through that in an area so let's keep going to see, and then the other important thing is, if you remember, we talked about Gulf coast icon.
Jin-Yi Yu: we've got about our tech chatter we say that, in order, developing a cycle over the coast coast coast area, you need to have Korea coke article.
Jin-Yi Yu: called rich this a cough coast region, and these riches work on developing a low pressure alarm this cold front, and this is exactly what happened during these February.
Jin-Yi Yu: Texas, we want the event because the color rush all the way, is more like a conway co search go all awake a spotless to the Gulf coast region two sets of access and then it developed in low pressure system and produce already snowing and running and also in the next slide in the next.
Jin-Yi Yu: slide when we show this video me to write down all the answers you'll notice that they are all talking about this, because when we have low pressure system will produce this free.
Jin-Yi Yu: around to the north of his own from here we're going to see freezing rain.
Jin-Yi Yu: Freezing rain and sleet and snow and that's exactly what is being described in our next class, because we can see that this all these mythological tell you where the snow is developing and then continue moon also knows Eastern war and he can see that.
Jin-Yi Yu: You have a video or this what I meant is showing a comma shape of this so when for patent because we say the low pressure system extra tropical cycle, the.
Jin-Yi Yu: precipitation for sure Karma shake and that's what you're going to see in the next day, so I remember that the head fast when the.
Jin-Yi Yu: phrasing is a snow storm event is Roberto Coco cycle and is related particularly this impasse or prikhodko cycle n before is to cut back to back.
Jin-Yi Yu: copco second happening there was a call wave go all the way from Canada into the Gulf coast area and to prepare for this event, with.
Jin-Yi Yu: brickell cold temperature in the national weather service already issued a warning before this even happening, so the meteorology office is doing an excellent job to pretend predicting this event.
Jin-Yi Yu: before the event actually arrived, with the TV news or any kip a woman, that this event is a historical event is extraordinary is strong winter even OK now let's go to the next night.
Jin-Yi Yu: hey weather warriors we've got a wild event happening here across the United States to powerhouse winter storms to track up.
Jin-Yi Yu: The central, eastern northeastern United States through February 19 one already happening right now, and also some pretty crazy weather out here in the North Western United States i'm going to talk about so Lisa these amenities important by a meteorologist I think i'm.
Jin-Yi Yu: Properly 1414 or 15 master after the national weather service issue will a snowman and he is basically showing you all this.
Jin-Yi Yu: Is not moto forecasting so event, this is he was doing the oddest NSA before this.
Jin-Yi Yu: Through snow snow snow snow storm heater Texas area, so when he doing this, and this is the first one that's already happening arriving in Texas, but based on his.
Jin-Yi Yu: His nsf of the computer model petition he predict that the second one will come and he used the computer model describe the sequence of these.
Jin-Yi Yu: Two so topical second year, so this is the information that information for you to know so, even though it is energizing.
Jin-Yi Yu: And what is is we use the computer model forecasting on February 15 but quite is quite here is as nicely match what is happening during the week or the 14 to 19 and that was happening in Texas.
Jin-Yi Yu: track timing location and much more in this episode, but before we begin, I invite you to subscribe below, if you like, a detailed educational weather forecast break.
Jin-Yi Yu: breakdowns just like this and hit those bell notifications, because these forecasts are best for you to write as they come out hot off the press.
Jin-Yi Yu: So let's get right into it common how much snow, you have so far this winter and we'll get right into it here so.
Jin-Yi Yu: If you look at this right now, this is the pink area, this is a winter storm warning and it is covering almost a quarter of the country here from all the way.
Jin-Yi Yu: up into the Northeast down to the Gulf of Mexico and the Texas Mexico border here, this is the farthest South i've seen a winter storm warning in quite some time, some historic stuff happening.
Jin-Yi Yu: Here in the pink all over the place, covers almost the entire State of Texas, we got a winter storm watch out here, this is for storm number two which i'll go over in this video.
Jin-Yi Yu: We also got the purples which are winter weather advisories blues winter storm launches in the dark purple see or the magenta or the maroon ish colors.
Jin-Yi Yu: Those are ice storm warnings, so we also have ice to deal with, and also thank you and have some isolated flooding out here, with some heavy rainfall so that's the story here.
Jin-Yi Yu: Where to go right over to the models and what we're looking at right now, so the precipitation and we're using the RDP S, which is the high resolution.
Jin-Yi Yu: Canadian model, and I think it's done it's done pretty well this winter, so it really good in the short range good with tracks so we're going to go with that, for this video.
Jin-Yi Yu: And right now, this is already happening so there's snow already blowing up in Texas.
Jin-Yi Yu: Oklahoma parts of Arkansas the blue areas are your snow mostly slight to moderate at the moment the purple and.
Jin-Yi Yu: The purple areas are sleet and the kind of the reddish magenta areas are going to be you're freezing rain and the Green out here, this is a wave of rain and thunder storms that have already moved to the east.
The issue is the this is your 540 line that's the rain or snow line, you can see how far South this thing is goes, all the way down to.
The Texas Mexico border here, but it isn't quite to the east, yet the Arctic air mass is still out here.
This low pressure system that's developing oh here is going to drop warm moisture so this first wave is nothing to worry about just some heavy rain at the moment but let's fast forward this.
Through the day it's a into Tuesday or it's night and day Monday and Tuesday, and you can see, as we head towards Monday at 9am this is 15 Z.
Jin-Yi Yu: So, first I want you to look at this corner these Karma is is going to tell you exactly what days that with a MS is is is describing So you see that this is an oppressive system here, and then we have.
Jin-Yi Yu: One fraud in this area right, and then we have a call from some local nice way.
Jin-Yi Yu: You can see that all these in final one from you have freezing rain I spotted a snow in front of the one for that's what we already learned.
Jin-Yi Yu: And this is another as an odious don't know already died they remember, we talked many times in order to win all these college town or.
Jin-Yi Yu: An article or Canada Canadian region in Italy, the southern part of United State, we need to have a previous windows.
Jin-Yi Yu: That you know track down all the Korea coming down, so this is pretty much the situation we're seeing here so, but the the windows thumb that I talked about back to back one is this one, this is the first one that was happening.
Jin-Yi Yu: For writing in Texas area on February 14 and you can see that this is the east coast here right, you can see that the he this meteorologists sharing this.
Jin-Yi Yu: The animation you can see, this low prices could have more in depth to the Northwest so this course stones going to move in and out and going or one book a coastal area that's when I mentioned in the beginning of these these.
Jin-Yi Yu: not sure okay that's come in.
Jin-Yi Yu: So not too far from now really the low really blows up off the coast here.
Jin-Yi Yu: And you get to see the freezing rain in the sleet this is your freezing rain access right there your slate access is back here.
Jin-Yi Yu: The gfs actually has a lot more snow in this area, but I do think that the models overdo.
Jin-Yi Yu: The snowfall a little bit and they under do the sleet and freezing rain just a little bit, especially the sleep, so the southern extent of this.
Jin-Yi Yu: snow rain or snow line I think if there's anything that it's going to be it's probably going to be more sleep biased.
Jin-Yi Yu: So, probably more sleep likely for this area that will inhibit snowfall amounts significantly.
Jin-Yi Yu: You know if you get a few inches of snow, but you get sleet instead that turns it into maybe an inch or two at best.
Jin-Yi Yu: Be can see farther North here Arkansas Texas Oklahoma Missouri parts of Illinois indiana Ohio Pennsylvania, and even Michigan in New York.
Jin-Yi Yu: In parts of southeast Canada a nice little wave of light snow, this is going to be scattered here in the morning, but this will really develop as this low moves to the east.
Jin-Yi Yu: You can see around Monday night here this moves to the Northeast one thing you have to keep your eye on is this low is moving just to the Northeast like this.
Jin-Yi Yu: So that's going to keep the snow track kind of to the Northeast as well, so the snow tracks, going to be Southwest to northeast here's your high pressure system out here.
Jin-Yi Yu: That rain snow line is starting to scoot to the east now.
Jin-Yi Yu: And really deliver a decent batch of snow here in the Midwest so now you're dealing with pretty moderate snow here half an inch maybe even close to an inch and our.
Jin-Yi Yu: Your heavy snow is always going to form right just to the north of that range of snow line where that moisture plume slams into that Arctic air mass the farther North you get you're going to get drier air.
Jin-Yi Yu: kind of pressing so you're heavy snow is going to be right here that transition zones that's going to be really key it's going to be a really tricky forecast when you're right along that line.
Jin-Yi Yu: Because you got sleep issues you got track issues to get the heavy snow issues into the North it's really tapers off so.
Jin-Yi Yu: Really, a heavy snow in that area, you can see a little bit again light snow on the Northeast here, but as we head towards the day Monday and Tuesday morning here this list to the north, you see here, you can see that this is our typical commerce shape on.
Jin-Yi Yu: The.
Jin-Yi Yu: On the run for President associated with a low price, so this is, you can tell, this is what this is the cold front, so this is the cold front.
Jin-Yi Yu: And if you look at a candidate up Chester in a nice way is to the nurse, a woman, for you have bees rain freezing rain is parrot and it's happening.
Jin-Yi Yu: and through the northwestern corner, because the most corrupt in here at me with a call, yes, are you also produce snow on this area.
Jin-Yi Yu: And if you saw this when he presented the different, they have the moving of this one they're struggling can see that is always assume this this commercial pattern.
Jin-Yi Yu: moving from, of course, all the way through most eastern corner let's go back to his ennis's.
Jin-Yi Yu: European computer bottles actually a lot farther South with this system and also the second system, so this summer we're gonna have to watch it's going to be a very tricky forecast still some significant uncertainty.
Jin-Yi Yu: For the coast coastal regions into the central portions of the northeastern United States at the moment, the general track in the general storm system intensity is really consistent, however.
Because we're we're dealing with mixing issues even 50 miles can make a gigantic difference with a system and you'll see why in a second when I show you the snowfall amounts.
You can see a decent plume of moisture along that cold front here's your warm front right there, so this is warm frontal snow.
So that moisture moves to the north slams into that snow and pretty heavy snow up there, as we head towards a Tuesday morning here this list to the Northeast, this is the issue, though, in terms of snowfall amount.
The typical nor'easter usually has this wrap around activity and it looks like a comma head.
Jin-Yi Yu: You just don't see that right now with this first system that will limit snowfall amounts potentially as much as six to 12 inches less.
Jin-Yi Yu: And i'll show you why here, this is early on, this is around now Monday morning or Monday afternoon around 4pm here's your moisture supply, this is a.
Jin-Yi Yu: Relative humidity near 100% you can see it's very moist along this low pressure system and moist out ahead of it but watches the system moves into the northeastern United States.
Jin-Yi Yu: Look at this surge just to the north that's your dry air so again, this is the Co fun.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, it is his name is a cofidis bullpen is a one time Okay, so how can we take in these witnesses, can I wish you a nice looking at this order.
Jin-Yi Yu: When i'm not in a panic and tell people, this is a Co founder co founder is is not going to put your snow and ice hole for you Jerry producer rain semester motivators kind of one.
Jin-Yi Yu: type of weather for this propaganda in front of the courthouse ago one from is actually the area policy freezing weather condition and that's what this event cause damage to to this part this, the United States.
Jin-Yi Yu: So this is something to remember let's go back to his analysis can so there's gonna be some significant dryer that quickly.
Jin-Yi Yu: Cuts into the system so right as the system's lifting to the north it's going to go from snow to nothing really, really quickly there's not a whole lot of wrap around with this activity.
Jin-Yi Yu: it's more of a open wave, by the time it gets to the Northeast and because of that that's really going to significantly.
Jin-Yi Yu: reduce the snowfall potential for parts of Eastern PA maybe down into the carolinas and Virginia.
Jin-Yi Yu: However, because that's significant warm frontal snow you're still going to get some decent snowfall in the interior northeastern United States out ahead of it but man.
Jin-Yi Yu: If that dryer didn't kick in so significantly and we had more of a closed wave here and wrapped around you'd be dealing with two feet out here so that really, really does inhibit things just a little bit.
Jin-Yi Yu: we'll go back to the RDP S, and you can see there's just a lack of wrap around there but it moves to the Northeast and still gives you a whopping amount of snow so let's look at the European, for the second system here's the.
Jin-Yi Yu: method we stick a little difficult the second reaches the coast almost so.
Jin-Yi Yu: And still gives you a whopping amount of snow so let's look at the here's your second system, this is really one right here.
Jin-Yi Yu: right here, and you can see significant ice there could be a significant ice storm in some areas we're gonna have to watch that this moves to the north that's the first system Okay, so this is this one is the first of this battle pack a coastal cycle that impacted Texas progress.
Jin-Yi Yu: and progress 16 on February 17 can see that is a new low pressure system developing in this region, and this one is going to continue more as the second Gulf coast icon is going to move.
Jin-Yi Yu: To a North eastern area that's where he's going to explain to you have seen that happen beginning from February 16 or 17th.
We can see it's a lot farther south of that snowline.
And reaches the coast almost so.
That is interesting and here's your second system, this is Wednesday now.
This system is going to be about 100 200 miles farther to the East, but once it develops the track is almost the exact same in terms of the snowfall so I double whammy to powerhouse storm systems.
impacting the eastern plains, to the Midwest to the interior northeastern United States here's their low developing here.
it's still not overly strong in Oklahoma Texas Arkansas and Missouri but a decent little batch of light to moderate snow and some freezing rain, but again, new Mexico West half of Texas Colorado and Kansas will probably get.
Probably miss out on this, because I think it's going to blow up just to the East, as we head towards Wednesday afternoon and evening, this is something we're gonna have to watch here.
As the storms lows developing especially early on, with these types of systems and out ahead along the warm front.
that's where you get your classic significant ice storms, you see this yellow area that's probably thunderstorms developing and it's surging North into that Arctic air mass and.
Early on the Arctic air mass it's you can think of it like this, this is the surface, this is the JET stream up here.
And this is North and South, I know that's kind of opposite, but whatever this is North up here, this is South it's kind of like a wedge of cold air it gets cold at the surface first and then, as the air mass move South it gets colder and colder further up so it's actually a.
Jin-Yi Yu: rather interesting here, where you could get you could get rain to fall here's your.
Jin-Yi Yu: ridiculously looking bad drawing of a cloud here, but it rains and then hits the surface and the surface is colder than just above so it actually freezes at the surface and that's how you get your freezing rain so that's going to.
Jin-Yi Yu: be a really big factor here in some areas, but further to the north, you know you just described is the one we talk about in the freezing precipitating chapter, so it depends on the because you have a Co air and the Nice, this is what he showed was hype.
Jin-Yi Yu: So you Korea comes in, finance and then want me to come in class, the South and that's what he's referring to this area, this is a cross section and that's why depends on how the coin is in a surface you could produce in rain prisoner in in.
Jin-Yi Yu: I spent I spent so that's why he tried his friend actually already learned that from the as new chapter 13.
Jin-Yi Yu: or 14 was for certain parties are freezing state precipitation so nice Texas smelly and actually give you a very good exercise and appreciation.
Jin-Yi Yu: That what the textbook talk about is actually rather than 40 so what, and this is over the United States has continue on this video snow, but this really gets going as we head towards Thursday afternoon and evening.
deals with some issues with rain and snow but lots of rain getting blooming into this area so you get a surge of moisture around Thursday.
Approximately 1am that moisture will eventually lift North and hit this high Arctic high.
This cold air mass when this surge list to the north, the snow is going to be blowing up across the Midwest North East we're talking clips of maybe an inch or more two inches per hour here.
As you can see, this is where it happens Thursday morning look at that snow blow up once that moisture hits that air mass boom one inch two inches an hour and then again.
As this thing's developing your warm front out here that's where you get your classic ice storm so we're gonna have to watch that area very closely, maybe a quarter half inch of ice or more.
And then several inches of snow out ahead of this thing behind it you'll see some ice as well, but I wouldn't worry too much about the ice on the backside of these systems.
it's usually not as significant your typical ice storms are out ahead of this system, but this area had ice earlier so it's just adding to it really.
Jin-Yi Yu: As we head towards a Thursday afternoon and evening, you can see, this really blows up moves to the north classic warm front.
Jin-Yi Yu: moist conveyor belt here, even some wrap around in Ohio and parts of Kentucky so that's going to add a few extra.
Jin-Yi Yu: And also, you can see, this is typical coltrane This is one from So you can see that what we learn in this class.
Jin-Yi Yu: will enable you to also do a webinar, and this is this is remember everything.
Jin-Yi Yu: When you look at is no prize you're going to see a woman from conference to conference always narrow producing room for and one thing.
Jin-Yi Yu: to note is going to produce rayon freezing when ice pilot and all these breweries are the snow area, so I mean.
Jin-Yi Yu: Are you saying is already, we are that's exactly how we learn from the past few chapter, so this is a good example that you realize that you can also 30 so whether analysis by just using this concept with the neighbor in the past few chapters.
Jin-Yi Yu: is called purple is video branches on the backside thunderstorms developing along that cold front another.
Jin-Yi Yu: batch of rain out here, significant rainfall you'll go out to the west coast you'll see a storm as well coming on shore.
Jin-Yi Yu: This is going to deliver significant snowfall for parts of Washington Oregon Idaho and rain along the coast, but we're talking significant amounts of snowfall in the upper elevations feet of snow with the that system.
Jin-Yi Yu: And will turn back our attention to the east coast storm system here as we head towards Friday afternoon or Friday morning, you can see, the low here's your cold front decent.
Jin-Yi Yu: Puma moisture here's a warm front, right here, and then snow in maine all the way to New York and the Great Lakes region and Canada.
Jin-Yi Yu: But the issue is dry air again mostly slight light to moderate snow.
Jin-Yi Yu: Around now, but this heaviest snow will probably develop early on as the systems of organizing before that dryer kicks in it'll be rod Pennsylvania.
Jin-Yi Yu: Ohio and West Virginia when that occurs, but as a system moves to the north it'll weekend just a bit.
Jin-Yi Yu: You know I think you're gonna have similar snowfall amounts but it's more of a pro long lighter to moderate snow farther to the north, but the heavy heavy snow will develop south, but it will be shorter duration i'ma show you what I made here.
Well, look at the dryer getting kicked and here's the second system early on tons of moisture you can see that.
And you can set really significant plume this is Thursday afternoon plume a moisture kicks into the Northeast but, again, this is a around.
Friday afternoon and evening that moisture that moisture really gets cut off by that dry air.
A little bit of wrap around, but nothing significant and you can kind of see it splits the storm so.
You have leftover moisture splits that conveyor belt of moisture that wraps it around kind of splits in half.
And that will really again cut off snowfall amounts, you could have gotten us good six to 12 inches extra on that wrap around but.
that'll limit things just a bit, but either way this is going to be a powerful system, a little bit of wrap around nothing crazy as we head towards Friday and Saturday.
Now, in terms of amounts, this is the European and it's a lot farther south and the other models will get the RDP S, which again i'm going with the RDP s on this one.
But you can see an access this this is this the most important thing as far out as the axis of heavy snow six to 10 inches and then call parts of the southern plains.
three to six inches with a system, I think the southern half of this is a little bit over done, I think that's gonna be more sleet and freezing rain.
But again, the access of heavier snow really going to be significant the northeastern United States the second system happens almost in the exact same area.
Jin-Yi Yu: The access is really just about in the same area, maybe just a tick to the north and another six to 12 inches or so, so it is.
Jin-Yi Yu: reserve metal carrier radical cosine commons taking this in then pass to move on, of course, all over to North East East instead of going around.
Jin-Yi Yu: The coastal area, so this is a very beautiful example to show this in them pass off the coast like Gulf coast Coco cycle now we're looking at the 10 to one.
Jin-Yi Yu: The northern half of this snow access might have something closer to a 1215 to one snow ratio, which would actually put more amounts than you see here.
Jin-Yi Yu: You see, about between these two events 12 to 16 it could be more like 12 to maybe 18 maybe even closer to two feet and that northern half the southern half, I think, is going to be a little bit over done it's going to be less than 10 to one so now let's say roughly around here.
on South it's probably going to be more like 25 or 50 to 75% of what that shows, now the Europeans much farther South with the general track.
In general, the northeastern United States so there's still a little bit uncertainty out there, but this area, I think, from about Tennessee down to Texas slightly overdone terms of snowfall amounts.
here's the RDP, as you can see that track a little bit farther to north, but as you'll see it's farther south and the gfs.
Jin-Yi Yu: there's your access of heavy snow and this is the criteria ratio, which I think so yeah he's talking about gfs is a national weather service.
Jin-Yi Yu: With a forecasting model and European is the Europeans forecasting model and you also mentioned a forecasting resolve i'm a Canadian model so are you say European gfs ids.
Jin-Yi Yu: are referring to different weather forecasting model, they are slightly different in the in the petition, but they generally.
Jin-Yi Yu: are particularly you have this in them pass of the Gulf coast outcome MU soda you know eastern part of the United States will do a little bit better here for the northern half.
Jin-Yi Yu: Six to 12 inches and the heaviest areas and then probably another six to 12 inches for that second system and then again out here in Texas two to four some areas, maybe three to six here's the gfs.
Jin-Yi Yu: it's farther North with that first system and then that second system same exact areas a little bit farther to the north.
Jin-Yi Yu: So again, the uncertainty really occurs right as you get towards this a box out here really the interior northeast and the southeast Canada there's still a little bit uncertainty and i'm going to go with.
Jin-Yi Yu: Just a tad farther South and what this says the RDP so the European have been a little bit more consistent than the gfs be you'll see the gfs and that access of heavy snow one to two feet.
Jin-Yi Yu: But it's a much higher for Canada, so a little bit uncertainty out there, but, generally speaking, the track there's good consistency and here.
Jin-Yi Yu: farther to the south east now in terms of the trends of the gfs you'll see early on and and now it's it's lining up, but I think this is going to move just a tad to the south.
And not terribly, so I think the European might be to South there's been a northward trend in the models, this year, one of the thing we'll look at as the ice.
With these two events.
And what will turn on the ice here.
So there's two different periods of ice that first system, I talked about, you can see that moves to the north, and then the second system.
Almost in the exact same area, except farther to the West so here's the second system, right here here's the first system.
The amounts are going to vary significantly the ice is extremely hard to predict on these models here but, again, the axis is what's important here generally kind of in this area, maybe even.
Another batch there and Virginia North Carolina but the hysteria could see as much as 0.25 like a quarter inch or so to maybe even a half inch of ice.
some areas where you get thunder freezing rain thunderstorms to go into thunderstorm freezing rain, you could see as much as Point five to maybe even Point seven five inches.
Once you be surprised to see some slightly higher than that, so that is a significant amount of ice.
Anything really over half inches pretty significant stay safe guys one other thing we'll look at is the rainfall amounts and then we'll wrap it up here the rainfall amounts are pretty significant as well we'll go out to the European it's been a little bit more consistent, the gfs here.
And we're talking significant amounts of rain here, the first system, a couple of inches and then that second edge.
system, a couple more inches, and this is both rain and snow, so this is measuring liquid in the atmosphere.
anything in that pink area purple area one inch or more like you'll see in this red, yellow area to to as much as four inches of rain of liquid.
Okay, and then the west coast, the same amount, maybe even four to six inches of like when a lot of that being snow.
snow out here core talking maybe as much as 60 plus inches so tons of snow out there as well, pretty crazy event happening here across the United States guys stay tuned for more updates.
share this with a friend again comment below how much do you guys have so far, the sweater hope you enjoyed this video and we'll see you soon.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, so yeah that's a.
Jin-Yi Yu: good example I want to show you to people's idea about what's happening to Lisa reason kicks us a window again and I want you to be able to tell your friend at.
Jin-Yi Yu: This event was caused by to Gulf coast say calm and that was tracking the around this the Mississippi Ohio river Valley, the in that one.
Jin-Yi Yu: And apple back to cause this event right the first event happening, maybe on February.
Jin-Yi Yu: February 14 and then the second event happening somewhere i'm a peppery 16 and 17 year old that because of the temperature is so common, so no that's a free frozen pros all these pipe pipe night for gasoline for.
Jin-Yi Yu: Electricity electricity and for for water and that's why cause so much a problem, it was time for East Texas event.
Jin-Yi Yu: Now let's go back to the.
Jin-Yi Yu: Analysis another.
Jin-Yi Yu: seem to talk about is our.
Jin-Yi Yu: Chapter 15 the present condition.
Jin-Yi Yu: Remember in the in the previous.
Jin-Yi Yu: weeks that lecture I was talking about co away in assignments, you know the coin is happening over this material hungry after you have for low pressure moving and then is this circle move and then he is going to bring in this code.
Jin-Yi Yu: And this when this extra service is going to steal they can try.
Jin-Yi Yu: This coed found cannot ask our we've come to the United States on the east side of the rocky mountain that's what I call the core with, and that was on Chapter 14, so this is already there too, he was the Korea was bring down by closing one is the moon, when our chakras.
Jin-Yi Yu: calm and so circle circle.
Jin-Yi Yu: push this clear to most muscles for us why it is still chapter 14 is part of the weather system we have pocket we talk about ready to extra tropical cycle and also we mentioned that this call is related to this mountain area happening in this is Spencer rocky mountain, so in this next.
Jin-Yi Yu: Chapter we're going to talk continue talking about this call event happening on this Western and last inside of the.
Jin-Yi Yu: Tropical cycle and that's what we talk about Chapter 14 the way Prem pleaser Commission and then since day.
Jin-Yi Yu: This present condition can be getting was getting stronger due to this, the proper coffee provided by the.
Jin-Yi Yu: rocky mountain, so the next chapter 16 is continuing to talk about the weather event related among mountain is called mountain snow storm and then after that we're going to talk about another letter phenomena related mountain is called my turn.
Jin-Yi Yu: stone and so on this mountain wisdom is actually very important for California region, because one of the.
Jin-Yi Yu: Mountain when the storm we experience or we talk about in the chapter i'm in the textbook is the santana will send Ghana, one is one of the three types of the mountain on some level and talk about so we're going to go through this chapter, so now first talk about pleaser.
Jin-Yi Yu: And again, as I say anything we'll talk about a phenomena first this definition second is a physical mechanism.
Jin-Yi Yu: sourcing is the typical weather pattern that can produce that particular.
Jin-Yi Yu: Hazardous weather condition so for the condition the weather pattern, at least to re enter happen when we have a Colorado low.
Jin-Yi Yu: type of the extra focus icon and the pressure can also happen when we have Alberta a creeper type of the weather pattern and the physical process that control, giving rise rise to this present condition very straightforward it just makes.
Jin-Yi Yu: cold temperature strong wind.
Jin-Yi Yu: And a plenty of.
Jin-Yi Yu: moisture.
Jin-Yi Yu: coming together, then, is corporate deals a phenomena that has a very strong rain.
Jin-Yi Yu: Very heavy snow.
Jin-Yi Yu: and very low, of course, very cold temperature.
Jin-Yi Yu: So, and then the bikinis and can mix all these call struggling and moisture together is.
Jin-Yi Yu: Colorado or help or creeper so he's physical mechanism in this for this chapter is very simple, not much to talk about so basically we're going to talk about the definition.
Jin-Yi Yu: That as soon as you mix call air moisture coming this reason together any particular reason, so the physical mechanism is this simple and then we're going to talk about the typical weather phenomena that can give rise to present condition so first.
Jin-Yi Yu: Whether that's really the definition the national weather service issues appraiser warming up warming up as a 19 owning.
Jin-Yi Yu: When when I expect to exceed solidify my power, so the first ingredient struggling and.
Jin-Yi Yu: Having a boring slow or reduce the visibility to less than a quarter or Maya Maya, for it is three hours so national weather service only used to to condition to.
Jin-Yi Yu: qualify to identify appraiser condition struggling and it is no.
Jin-Yi Yu: is a key component or freezer we do not use specific temperature criteria to define a pre pre the condition because that's easy to consider us.
Jin-Yi Yu: For sure one component, you have to have in order to have preserved condition very, very cold temperature for a band called me, you need to measure when he is very strong.
Jin-Yi Yu: And the same Heidi how's the snow produced from an event will return us the visibility, it is to less than a quarter mile for is we are so those only we only use a national weather service on the US women's visibility to define the event.
Jin-Yi Yu: So prisoner can occur virtually anywhere in the northern half of the United States, look at here, this is where razor occurred frequency.
Jin-Yi Yu: By how many blazer condition.
Jin-Yi Yu: And this is divided by country, so you can see that most of these are happening in the north of the.
Jin-Yi Yu: United States and more and be a great friend area they occur with the highest frequency over North and South Dakota Minnesota nebraska northern Idaho Idaho an Eastern Colorado Okay, you can see that, from this map.
Jin-Yi Yu: Now let's say official common condition to produce fraser right see.
Jin-Yi Yu: Let me do something.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, so.
Jin-Yi Yu: The Commission, of course, we need to mix extreme cold air and with some green and.
Jin-Yi Yu: heavy snow, so how can we have extreme color the color or religion and oppression of Western, Central Canada right you only need to bring.
Jin-Yi Yu: Mr we have this coke coke of going over this region name another producer very strongly and how can we produce very strongly, because if you look at our map when we have no pressure here the pressure on Michael over darkness.
Jin-Yi Yu: He will know that pressure now very close to each other, around a low pressure, but the pressure, particularly when the use of the avocado.
Jin-Yi Yu: Yes, particularly kind of close to each other and northwestern corner along to the low pressure that's very nice region we have restaurant is when and sort of struggle with when can always be found romney's northwestern corner of the low pressure system.
Jin-Yi Yu: And that's why the printer condition tend to happen on this corner of the extra tropical cycle and.
Jin-Yi Yu: snow so in order to produce hades know so we already know about to produce strong going to go through this every healthy low pressure and temperature has come down for North America has to be wrapping as soon as we just listen to that when that happens every day, the tech side us even.
Jin-Yi Yu: The largest always say that the world was Robin Robin Robin from this area because, in the United States right, we have all this moisture moisture in the south and not pressure system is going to produce.
Jin-Yi Yu: counterclockwise notation this candle she's got.
Jin-Yi Yu: From the South to approach this one for me is called rise around one fun and rapid rapid from this area into the most Western corner and to me this career and that's why we produce these the present condition okay.
Jin-Yi Yu: So, but this is pretty much the financial mechanism so we just assume, so we have extra cycle extra tropical cycle, then we can move this race Nikita to produce appraiser condition so.
Jin-Yi Yu: The extra tropical circle is the most suitable to put these to pronounce these three ingredients together to produce preserved condition so we'll find out our moods of these cycles develop.
Jin-Yi Yu: Our own tool location is the rocky mountain So here we are rocky amanda year and this is United States and this rocky Monaco, or the Canada and so on the eastern side.
Jin-Yi Yu: Of the of the rocky mountain, we have a Colorado and on the eastern side of the Canadian rocky mountain we have Alberta creeper so the.
Jin-Yi Yu: Actual article cycle not typical can produce the printer condition over the United States to Colorado and Alberta cleaver so the Colorado.
Jin-Yi Yu: Though Colorado circle or Alberta creeper cycle can do to preserve conditions and the was preserved Commission occur with horrible cycle, because the corral circle is located.
Jin-Yi Yu: To the south, so when he produced this dog precious rotation, the moisture It is this Toronto is more close to come from a medical.
Jin-Yi Yu: problem so that's where the most air can come in, or coming from differently, why they are planning a creeper neuropathy located further to the north is more difficult to it and not.
Jin-Yi Yu: As much noise as the Colorado law that's why the corrupted.
Jin-Yi Yu: The present condition produced by the Colorado is usually was then these are produced by the Alberta creeper so that's pretty much you want to remember revisit these are.
Jin-Yi Yu: Great cramp fraser condition and introduced in this chapter, so now let's look at exactly how the, what are the patterns look like in order to produce this freezer condition.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, the first one is the freezer condition related corrado again remember in the past few chapter, when we talk about what I can relate to the around with.
Jin-Yi Yu: The actual topical Second, we always has one when I met for the upper level three here 300 minutes and service where i'm at that you can show see this tropical second low pressure system, so I will.
Jin-Yi Yu: tell you.
Jin-Yi Yu: This we have this low pressure system developing in that particular occasion, because in this example, this Colorado low pressure system is they've not been on this instance of us.
Jin-Yi Yu: rocky mountain and this is what we call a typical Colorado and a producer conference room and the reason this project is developing our software is because he can see here.
Jin-Yi Yu: We have a tissue in the upper level come in, who need this district hit the month and you're putting a lot of pressure.
Jin-Yi Yu: In the mountain.
Jin-Yi Yu: area right so already mentioned, this method, even a month and year.
Jin-Yi Yu: Then I heard of follow up a label for passing through a month is co producer and I mentioned, we are a color.
Jin-Yi Yu: is going to produce a low pressure here.
Jin-Yi Yu: So it is my pleasure here, you can see that there's a truck.
Jin-Yi Yu: This operable truck here.
Jin-Yi Yu: and fast rule of thumb is drop this region, we have rabies from our political direction or the concept, or this region, so it must be rise from the bottom to reach the same location as 300 million for the air.
Jin-Yi Yu: And that means this up or a thumbs down from the top here suck it up customer in the last and dice dice and that becomes a low pressure system, so we already know that from the previous chapter, so this one Okay, first because you have is typical operable.
Jin-Yi Yu: drop into the rocky mountain we produce no pressure Okay, please, a condition 2.
Jin-Yi Yu: million seen the Colorado psycho psycho cold air and as soon as the high pressure is already in place or the Canadian praying at a time, the second is developing so.
Jin-Yi Yu: We have this upper level trump beautiful Kurt Kurt recommended.
Jin-Yi Yu: browser Commission will either make sure that we already have been able to call it, we have it fun located in Canada Canadian region Okay, and then.
Jin-Yi Yu: We have these two condition existing happen, then we have this available trump became a developing Hello Hello became the developing then see as soon as the the quarter developing the.
Jin-Yi Yu: In the choir mass behind is happy fun in this region approach to Canada, Canada, Canada and as well as well, we know.
Jin-Yi Yu: This code now can can come into the United States and to trump between the rocky mountain and this issue of moving low pressure system we're going to see.
Jin-Yi Yu: In the next slide so as the circle move used to have the article, you can move through an approach to the cycle Center and we're not happen we're going to see these map.
Jin-Yi Yu: So this is circles, where a map So you see initially the wrong was located here right let's go back to the previous slide.
Jin-Yi Yu: See, though, is located here and then he moved to the east, right after he moved to the east.
Jin-Yi Yu: This criteria initially sitting in Canada, you have to call whoa whoa this Korea can suck in why this coil coming because remember no pressure is alternative counterclockwise so when this domain here is going to do.
Jin-Yi Yu: This one where normal race war is going to rotate it counterclockwise legal plan is Korea coming to trump between rocky mountain and.
Jin-Yi Yu: to the east of the low pressure system that's exactly what we see here is Korea just sucking, and so this color is becoming.
Jin-Yi Yu: The front is now all awake putting united state and trump between the rocky mountain and this no pressure, you can see that, as I say this, that pressure produce a very, very strong pressure greater you see that, or is it prep my depression, I can see that the pressure night is.
Jin-Yi Yu: Small pack together in the northwestern corner, the other side okay that's why we now have come to this last lesson corner.
Jin-Yi Yu: I call with of course cold air temperature we see, we need to shrink in gradient of struggling in this nice Western corner, always a strongest.
Jin-Yi Yu: Pressure gradient so you're struggling and then, when he come moisture so see that okay this shading area of this map the staging area.
Jin-Yi Yu: So now, all this is Robin like this will come across quite to always most is coming in here because.
Jin-Yi Yu: Chris knows we'll call it call it is why form a cold front one from sorry the woman approaching a cold cold air, and this is going to is lighter so it's called go up up up right on top of the coil and then one is a continuous spiral into this area or this module coming year, so we have.
Jin-Yi Yu: One is sure all three together, then it makes it ready to produce the great room condition Okay, so all this information I just mentioned, so let me clean up this slide.
Jin-Yi Yu: Is the cycle of progress Nice was it was easy to follow and intensify so we already mentioned, why intensify right because operable here.
Jin-Yi Yu: right then would produce a low here, though, is called rotated prune on air and the Nice, the rich and bring color and then is the.
Jin-Yi Yu: range or a woman Dennis ritchie ritchie could get higher we have caller coming underneath the.
Jin-Yi Yu: truck can cook hello, so this commentary intensified calculator, and so I was in case stronger so low price you're getting stronger and stronger, so we already mentioned that far along with exercise this concept sold out the recipe, the rapture okay so.
Jin-Yi Yu: Let me check on one issue, what Moses one intensify extreme.
Jin-Yi Yu: Pressure reading developing on a North Western side of the cycle that's pressure gradient try to meet three core is sounds for us all the second Center creating a.
Jin-Yi Yu: Calm when a pleaser as a second progress so is that circle warm air eyes East all this front upper front and over one five become napping around in North eastern side of low prices Center okay look at is the shading most a cow basically also indicate where the money.
Jin-Yi Yu: is located in a pan of cow and precipitation or this North Western side of cycle here and content content come there's no question for him to RT so you have this.
Jin-Yi Yu: Have the moisture hit.
Jin-Yi Yu: was a call a piece of pre Israel for free precipitation fall to the ground running for them so when you encounter this article here and that's why it produce a pleaser condition.
Jin-Yi Yu: In addition to these are typical web pack, and we also mentioned that, because this brings a condition as soon as she was Colorado in Colorado know.
Jin-Yi Yu: happening always on the eastern side of the rocky mountain so when this air mass is moving around from east to the West is currently facing an absolute.
Jin-Yi Yu: pleasure, because of the capillary effect produced by the rocky mountain sort of second factor, creating snow, not a quest opera Colorado know.
Jin-Yi Yu: has to do with the topography over which the circle is moving because the Mississippi that this outcome is moving to the Mississippi river Valley, which is less than.
Jin-Yi Yu: 500 feet above sea level fire the career plan in the eastern Colorado just East or rocky here is about 5000 feet.
Jin-Yi Yu: Right, so I thought the air for.
Jin-Yi Yu: This role now so recycle a mass kind of so up the top obviously move from Mississippi river valley and West will power, the eastern Colorado Colorado become higher.
Jin-Yi Yu: So that it has to pass moist air has to go up and calling them yourself to to the at the at coding process.
Jin-Yi Yu: And there's topography induce cooling will enhance the cloud formation, as in snow for a that's why these.
Jin-Yi Yu: Colorado and Alberta creeper can produce brace up, please, a condition and is northwestern corner and beside his.
Jin-Yi Yu: Strong pressure gradient moisture and cold temperature the graphic in an amplifier amplify your fat produced by rocky mountain is also important.
Jin-Yi Yu: Now let's quickly talk about the yarra typical pattern that can produce the present condition again, this is also related to low pressure system.
Jin-Yi Yu: happening on the eastern side of the rocky mountain for this time the low pressure system is not developing an independent corrado instead is developing in Canada EMEA Alberta area that's Why is called Alberta.
Jin-Yi Yu: creeper so a creeper in Colorado Colorado are both produce in those two locations to to the rocky mountain effect okay so i'm not going to see.
Jin-Yi Yu: Here we're going Next, I want to compare the difference between the weather person reading to Colorado in the freezer condition and the weather pattern Roberto.
Jin-Yi Yu: In a crowd pleaser Commission, the key is here, you can hear this now, this one okay.
Jin-Yi Yu: We will talk about in a previous a Colorado this test from his passing through the US paddle groggy and so there's a label when i'm not.
Jin-Yi Yu: here.
Jin-Yi Yu: Which is.
Jin-Yi Yu: This.
Jin-Yi Yu: A pressure my code.
Jin-Yi Yu: In the Colorado here, but in this situation, you can see that the children okay motorola nos so honey passing through documented it producer tip.
Jin-Yi Yu: Is trump in the current Canadian wages, so this this tip is here is to be here so that comes through from the top producer label divergent on a cassette up so right underneath this region, you produce.
Jin-Yi Yu: A creeper, but when the gesture is more close to the unanimous, the US side or the rocky mountain that upper level trapeze produce here rather than here, so you brandon is here producer low pressure I see.
Jin-Yi Yu: Colorado.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, so.
Jin-Yi Yu: Here is your dress code.
Jin-Yi Yu: If you look at what.
Jin-Yi Yu: Is he gonna put this corrado.
Jin-Yi Yu: condition to happen this Colorado Colorado form we already have called a city in over a candidate Canadian region sober for a creeper to produce a condition in the United States, so because remember the title of this chapter is the.
Jin-Yi Yu: Gray prep freezer so we know you're talking about the present condition in a great friend of the United States, so if that plays a condition is produced by.
Jin-Yi Yu: A creeper Canadian low pressure, then we ask that this for me no pressure produce this coin must be already come into the United States, so.
Jin-Yi Yu: Critical sovereignty typically developed after color is already over nolan us and the JET Stream is all over Canada, but the test is over, Canada and that's why he produced album.
Jin-Yi Yu: And then call is already prepare it's already pre existing in the United States, so we just no need to bring this.
Jin-Yi Yu: into the United States.
Jin-Yi Yu: To measure that is a cripple will come into a nice day, we need to make sure that the test run.
Jin-Yi Yu: The test run over Canada and the US is oriented from the North West.
Jin-Yi Yu: South East because remember on the surface is finding the full pattern in the operative word so.
Jin-Yi Yu: To have a condition happen in the United States.
Jin-Yi Yu: This.
Jin-Yi Yu: Coming to United States so that's why we require the stereo condition is that gesturing has to oriented mouse is not wants to start his.
Jin-Yi Yu: second condition is, we need to have color already developing located in the United States.
Jin-Yi Yu: And then so condition, of course, these no pressure is coming there's no pressure is going to produce struggling and then clay, is ready made reframe We just need someone comes in and to suck in all these moisture Okay, then you will produce output.
Jin-Yi Yu: from prison, so a lot of compare this to talk with a patent related collateral the pleaser condition corrado the freezer comedian.
Jin-Yi Yu: pepper creeper so operable registering for it in order to Colorado produce preserved condition, the question has to cross the rocky mountain on the US side in order.
Jin-Yi Yu: To produce the present condition in the United States, this dope this testing has to cause the rocky mountain under Canadian side, this question has to mixture is going from Northwest to South East service.
Jin-Yi Yu: will come into the United States, the second difference is that for.
Jin-Yi Yu: other parties, please, a condition this coin must be still in the mouse or be Colorado so he can be sucked into the Western style Colorado.
Jin-Yi Yu: Colorado moved to East but for a creeper the producer printer can we integrate prep This must be already in the Gray area of the United States that's the difference between.
Jin-Yi Yu: These two powerful when a pattern that goes koto koto produce the present condition, so it has Russo this the Commission kind of this album move into the United States for happen so when they come in the south east walk across across Canada, Canada and into the Great Lakes region.
Jin-Yi Yu: From here.
Jin-Yi Yu: Well, so for the lowest of the low prices Center in bitcoin coming from behind his coat but the man is proud to have been a creeper produced last so then together here, you see.
Jin-Yi Yu: Again, we see a very strong pressure my here, and then you have koa here, the same as the one which we discussed for a Colorado and the most is going to come in public fun eastern side of the.
Jin-Yi Yu: Family, I found the ocean and maybe for a caption post area and grew up into here, but I have a cripple confused us know, then caudillo typical me to keep recording me to to fight interest and, most of us know form in a live alone and over advancing Arctic to move put us over this area.
Jin-Yi Yu: And i'm a smoker widen our product cripple produce less intense.
Jin-Yi Yu: Please, a condition, because it is further away from this huge amount of moisture that is available in the Gulf coast to recover medical.
Jin-Yi Yu: Okay, and that's all about a.
Jin-Yi Yu: great friend fraser i'm going to stop here and then then going through our next lecture i'm going to talk about the mountains snowstorm a mountain stop okay stop here bye.