Title: Satellite observations of atmospheric carbon: new scientific insights and their future role in the Paris Agreement
Abstract: We have an estimated carbon budget of 500 GtCO2 that is associated with a 50% chance of limiting the rise in global mean temperature to 1.5K above the pre-industrial value. We are currently exhausting that budget at a rate of 40 GtCO2/yr. These estimates rely on nature maintaining business-as-usual levels of productivity. In the case of CO2 this is associated with a progressively larger uptake process that maintains an approximately constant CO2 airborne fraction. In this presentation, I will present new insights into the carbon cycle from satellite observations of CO2 and CH4, which will ultimately influence how well we can meet international climate targets. I will also briefly describe the embryonic CO2 Copernicus Service that describes Europe’s response to the Paris Agreement.