A Bayesian Framework for Storm Tracking Using a Hidden-State Representation

TitleA Bayesian Framework for Storm Tracking Using a Hidden-State Representation
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2010
AuthorsScharenbroich, L., Magnusdottir G., Smyth P., Stern H., & Wang C. - C.
JournalMonthly Weather Review
Volume138
Pagination2132-2148
Date PublishedJun
Type of ArticleArticle
ISBN Number0027-0644
Accession Numberhttp://apps.isiknowledge.com/InboundService.do?Func=Frame&product=WOS&action=retrieve&SrcApp=EndNote&Init=Yes&SrcAuth=ResearchSoft&mode=FullRecord&UT=000279677500008
Keywords1000; algorithm; Content Type: Biblio; convergence; data association; eastern pacific; graphical; hypothesis tracking; Magnusdottir Modeling Lab; models; multitarget tracking; perspective; resolution; tropical cyclones
Abstract

A probabilistic tracking model is introduced that identities storm tracks from feature vectors that are extracted from meteorological analysis data. The model assumes that the genesis and lysis times of each track are unknown and estimates their values along with the track's position and storm intensity over time. A hidden-state dynamics model (Kalman filter) characterizes the temporal evolution of the storms. The model uses a Bayesian methodology for estimating the unknown lifetimes (genesis lysis pairs) and tracks of the storms. Prior distributions are placed over the unknown parameters and their posterior distributions are estimated using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm. The posterior distributions are used to identify and report the most likely storm tracks in the data. This approach provides a unified probabilistic framework that accounts for uncertainty in storm timing (genesis and lysis), storm location and intensity, and the feature detection process. Thus, issues such as missing observations can be accommodated in a statistical manner without human intervention. The model is applied to the field of relative vorticity at the 975-hPa level of analysis from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System during May-October 2000-02, in the tropical east Pacific. Storm tracks in the National Hurricane Center best-track data (HURDAT) for the same period are used to assess the performance of the storm identification and tracking model.

URLhttp://apps.isiknowledge.com/InboundService.do?Func=Frame&product=WOS&action=retrieve&SrcApp=EndNote&Init=Yes&SrcAuth=ResearchSoft&mode=FullRecord&UT=000279677500008
Alternate JournalMon. Weather Rev.
ESS Associations
Research Area: 
Physical Climate
Research Lab: 
Magnusdottir Research Group